How California’s Drought is Shaking Up Almond Prices

California’s ongoing drought, with severe water shortages and intense heat, has pushed almond production to its limits. These challenges have caused almond kernel prices to climb steeply, with projections suggesting they’ll soon cross $10,80 per kg. Over the past 10–12 days, booking rates for almond kernels in California have steadily increased as the situation worsens.

Prices Are Rising, but Supplies Are Running Thin

Indian importers have responded quickly, raising prices by $1,44 to $1,50 per kg just last week. Analysts think the prices could jump another $1,20 soon. Meanwhile, shipments have plummeted, with almond arrivals at Indian ports down by 28–30% over the last month. Current stocks are about 33–34% lower than this time last year, with very few new containers arriving.

After months of low demand, snack companies and restaurants are back in the market, competing for what little stock remains. The limited almond harvest in California has everyone on edge, triggering a buying spree. “There’s just not enough to go around this season,” says one trader.

The Struggles of California’s Almond Farmers

California’s almond growers are facing their toughest years yet. In just two seasons, production has fallen from a record 3 billion pounds to an estimated 2.5 billion pounds. Around 200–225 farmers have stopped growing almonds altogether, unable to keep up with rising costs and poor returns.

Just a week ago, almond kernels sold for $8,16 per kg, but they’ve now reached $9,90 per kg. With empty shelves across industries and fewer imports, prices might hit $10,80 per kg within a month. Whole almonds from California have also jumped from $216 to $270 per 40 kg in just ten days, further underlining the tough market conditions.





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