Ukrainian Sunflower Prices Face New Pressures

As 2024 winds down, sunflower prices in Ukraine have dropped below $0,675 per kg. The decline comes as local processors lower their buying prices while farmers hold back on sales, waiting for better offers. This tug-of-war has slowed activity in the market, with some processing plants temporarily shutting down due to reduced volumes.

Sunflower oil prices, a key driver of raw sunflower prices, have also taken a hit. Oil for January deliveries to Black Sea ports is now trading between $1,05 and $1,07 per kg, a noticeable drop over the past month. Globally, sunflower oil prices have fallen by 0,5% this week to $1,255 per kg, adding to a 4,2% decline over the past month, according to Trading Economics.

Russia’s Influence on Ukrainian Markets

The Ukrainian sunflower market is feeling the heat from cheaper imports of sunflower oil from Russia. At the same time, Russia has raised its forecast for this year’s sunflower harvest to 16,6 million tons, up from initial estimates of 15,5–16 million tons. This surplus has pushed Russian prices down, with sunflower oil export prices falling by $0,13 per kg in December. For January, Russia will raise its export duty on sunflower oil to $0,16 per kg, which could further disrupt global pricing dynamics.

Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Add to the Challenge

Palm oil prices, a competitor to sunflower oil, are also declining. On the Bursa exchange, February futures for palm oil are trading at $1,015 per kg. This is partly due to rising exports from Malaysia and reduced trade activity during the holiday season. Meanwhile, soybean oil remains under pressure as South America expects a strong harvest. These trends are likely to keep sunflower oil prices subdued until at least March or April.

Farmers and Traders Brace for a Tough Start to 2025

Ukrainian farmers are grappling with a tough market as lower prices make it harder to profit from this year’s harvest. Traders, too, are keeping a close eye on global trends, from Russia’s export policies to palm and soybean oil movements. Many are hoping for a rebound in prices early next year, but much will depend on the global supply-demand balance and shifts in trade policies.





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