Volatility in Rapeseed Prices and Record-Breaking Soybean Harvests in Sight
Volatility in Rapeseed Prices and Record-Breaking Soybean Harvests in Sight
Rapeseed: High Volatility on Euronext
The February 2025 contract for rapeseed on Euronext has shown significant volatility. On Thursday, prices rose by €10/t, only to fall by €14/t on Friday, closing at €510.25/t. A critical technical support level is now at €505/t, which bulls are keen to defend.Soybeans: Losses on the CBoT
Soybeans also declined, with the March 2025 contract on the CBoT dropping by 20.25 cents to settle at 991.75 cents/bu (€353.83/t).Palm Oil: Rising Prices Amid Uncertainty
Palm oil prices in Malaysia rose slightly, supported by Indonesia’s announcement of increased biodiesel blending quotas from 35% to 40% starting January 2025. Initial uncertainty was resolved when the Indonesian energy minister confirmed a 1.5-month transition period for implementation.Import and Price Dynamics:
- India: Palm oil imports in December dropped 40% to 500,000 tonnes, as palm oil is currently $100/t more expensive than soybean and sunflower oils.
- Soybean oil imports rose by 3% to 420,000 tonnes, the highest level in four months.
- Sunflower oil imports fell by 22% to 265,000 tonnes.
Weather Conditions in South America
- Brazil: While most regions report favourable conditions, drought in southern areas could stress crops if rain does not arrive by mid-January.
- Argentina: Persistent dryness and rising temperatures are putting additional stress on vegetation. Two weeks without significant rainfall could cause lasting damage to crops.
Soybean Production: Record Harvest Expected
- Brazil:
- The US Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) increased its production forecast to 165 million tonnes (up from 161 million tonnes).
- The planted area is now estimated at 47 million hectares, with an average yield of 3.51 t/ha.
- Exports could rise to 105 million tonnes, while ending stocks are expected to remain at 5.6 million tonnes.
- StoneX:
- Their forecast increased to 171.4 million tonnes (+6.4 million tonnes compared to the FAS).
- Exports are projected at 107 million tonnes.
- These figures significantly exceed last year’s production of 152 million tonnes.
Soybean Oil Demand
- The USDA reported a sale of 28,000 tonnes of soybean oil to India.
- The EIA noted a 14% increase in soybean oil consumption for biofuel production in October 2024, with combined biodiesel and renewable diesel production reaching 460 million gallons, the second-highest level on record.