Market Report: Turkish Hazelnut Market – January 2025

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Market Overview

The hazelnut market shows a cautious stance after the turn of the year. Both export and domestic demand remained low during the holiday period. Despite minimal activity, prices slightly increased due to reduced raw material inflow and exchange rate effects. Uncertainties and differing expectations from buyers and sellers currently characterize the market.

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Price Levels

Current prices for Turkish hazelnut kernels (11–13 mm, g/n) DDP Central Europe are:

• Conventional raw kernels: €7.91/kg
• Roasted kernels: €6.99–9.80/kg
• Hazelnut paste: €6.55/kg

Market Development (Comparison Periods):

• 1 Week: +2.34% (compared to calendar week 52, 2024)
• 1 Quarter: +8.75% (compared to October–December 2024)
• 1 Year: +9.99% (compared to January 2024)
• 3 Years: +31.57% (compared to January 2022)

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Current Market Situation

• Raw Material Supply: Inflow to local markets has been limited in recent weeks, tightening supply and slightly driving up raw material prices.
• Quality: For Q1 2025, the quality of delivered goods is guaranteed to remain stable. However, uncertainties exist for the second half of the year, particularly for natural kernels.
• Financial Developments: The Turkish Central Bank reduced the key interest rate to 47.5%, slightly negatively affecting export prices. Inflation is decreasing but remains high (44.38% as of December 2024).

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Bullish Trends

• The market leader may adjust its purchasing bid, potentially driving higher demand.
• The TMO (Turkish Grain Board) may withhold stocks to support market prices.
• Quality issues with natural kernels could increase prices for processed products.
• Stable demand for high-quality hazelnuts in Europe and other core markets.

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Bearish Trends

• High inflation and increased production costs could impact the competitiveness of Turkish hazelnuts.
• Uncertainties in the chocolate industry lead to cautious purchasing strategies with reduced volumes.
• Surpluses from the 2022 harvest could burden the market starting in January.
• Buyers may withdraw due to high prices, particularly in markets like China.

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Conclusion

The hazelnut market is in a delicate phase where price trends depend on several factors, including raw material availability, market stimuli from the TMO, and Turkey's economic developments. Short-term price increases are possible; however, demand remains subdued in some segments. The industry will closely monitor supply developments and international conditions.