Corn Prices Take a Dip

Corn prices, which experienced a speculative 5% rise in December due to dry weather in Argentina, saw a 2% drop on January 3. The CBOT March corn futures settled at USD 0,1776 per kg, reflecting a 2.5% increase for the month. This decline comes amidst profit-taking by traders and concerns over a new virus in China.

Argentina’s Weather and Production Updates

Argentina continues to face challenging weather conditions, with no rain expected over the next week and above-average temperatures. Despite these hurdles, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) revised its corn sowing forecast upwards to 6.6 million hectares, up from 6.3 million hectares, with 80% of the crop already sown by late December. However, in Córdoba, a key producing region, only 56% of the crop has been planted due to insufficient rainfall.

U.S. Corn Export and Ethanol Trends

U.S. corn exports have remained strong, reaching 15.4 million tons by December 26, a 26.8% increase compared to the previous year. Additionally, corn consumption for ethanol rose by 1.7% in November, totaling 11.8 million tons. These factors continue to support the U.S. corn market, despite global uncertainties.

Brazil’s Favorable Harvest

In Brazil, 80.8% of the first-crop corn area has been planted, and harvesting has already begun in Rio Grande do Sul. Favorable weather with abundant rainfall has led analysts to increase Brazil’s corn production forecast to 128.6 million tons, up from 122 million tons in the previous marketing year.

European and Ukrainian Market Updates

March corn futures on the Paris exchange rose by 2.6% during late December but declined by 1.3% to USD 0,2165 per kg on January 3. A weaker euro against the dollar has made European markets less attractive for Ukrainian corn, redirecting focus toward Asian markets.

In Ukraine, export demand prices at Black Sea ports remain at USD 0,204-0,206 per kg. As of December 30, Ukraine exported 9.52 million tons of corn in the 2024/25 marketing year, a 1.8% increase over the previous year, although December exports dropped from 3.2 million tons in 2023 to 2.3 million tons this year.





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