Almond Kernel Prices Set to Climb Further as Stock Runs Low

Almond prices in India are climbing steadily as strong demand and limited stock tighten the market. Current trends suggest that almond kernel prices may soon exceed USD 10,80 per kg, driven by higher international booking rates and reduced production in California—the world’s largest almond supplier.

Rising Booking Rates Drive Upward Price Movement

Exporters in California have significantly increased booking rates, with prices now ranging from USD 5,18 to USD 5,28 per kg, a sharp rise from USD 3,04 per kg just a few months ago. Indian importers, adjusting to these global trends, have raised their prices after a brief correction. Over the last month, almond kernel prices have jumped by USD 0,24 to USD 0,30 per kg, with further increases expected in the coming weeks.

Supply Constraints at Indian Ports

Almond kernel arrivals at Indian ports have dropped by 28-30% in the past six weeks, while stock levels are down by 37-38% compared to last year. Many traders report that older stocks have nearly sold out, and new shipments are arriving in much smaller quantities. This reduced availability has heightened competition among buyers, especially snack manufacturers and large-scale consumers.

California’s Production Challenges

California’s almond farmers have faced numerous challenges this season, including water shortages and higher temperatures. These conditions have lowered production, with almond yields estimated at 1,06 billion kilograms, a notable decline from the peak production of 1,06 billion kilograms two years ago. Fewer active farmers and poor growing conditions have further tightened global supplies, impacting the Indian market significantly.

Strong Consumer Demand and Market Trends

Demand from snack companies and restaurants, which had slowed during the market downturn, is now rebounding. Over the past week, almond kernel prices in India have risen from USD 9,49 per kg to USD 10,04 per kg. Whole almonds from California have also seen price hikes, moving from USD 5,66 to USD 5,91 per kg within four days.

With limited stock and a smaller upcoming harvest, traders anticipate further price increases. Industry experts believe almond kernel prices could surpass USD 10,80 per kg by March, fueled by strong domestic and international factors.

Conclusion

India’s almond market is navigating a period of high demand and tight supply. For traders, this presents an opportunity to capitalize on the current price trends. With limited stock and an expected rise in prices, now may be an ideal time to secure inventory before prices climb even higher. As March approaches, the market outlook remains optimistic for sellers, while buyers should act swiftly to manage costs effectively.





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