Global soybean markets are experiencing dual conditions, with Argentina’s weather challenges driving prices higher, while Ukraine sees limited growth due to global market pressures. Let's discuss this in detail.

Weather Troubles Slow Down Argentina’s Crops

Argentina started its soybean planting season strongly, thanks to favorable early rainfall. However, in recent weeks, dry and hot weather has caused concerns, putting future crop yields for soybeans and corn at risk. Weather forecasts suggest these unfavorable conditions could persist for another two weeks, intensifying worries about the harvest.

According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE), progress on Argentina’s crops stands at:

• 87% of corn planted out of the planned 6.6 million hectares.
• 93% of soybeans planted out of the expected 18.4 million hectares.
• 95% of wheat harvesting completed.

While the early season showed promise, the current weather patterns are straining Argentina’s planting efforts.

Global Soybean Prices Respond to Argentina’s Supply

Soybean prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) have risen in response to Argentina’s weather challenges. January futures climbed 1.8% last week, reflecting supply concerns. After a slight 1.8% dip on Friday, prices bounced back on Monday by 1.1%, reaching USD 0,36 per kg, similar to last month’s levels.

China’s strong appetite for U.S. soybeans continues to influence global prices. During the final week of December, the U.S. exported 1.285 million tons of soybeans, a decline of 21.8% from the previous week. Despite this, total U.S. soybean exports for the 2024/25 marketing year have reached 29.96 million tons, a notable 23.2% increase compared to last year.

Brazil and Ukraine Struggle with Export Challenges

Brazil’s soybean exports have slowed considerably. December shipments totaled just 2 million tons, marking a sharp 47.65% drop from the same period in 2023. This decline can be attributed to China favoring U.S. soybeans and expectations of lower Brazilian prices as the February harvest approaches.

In Ukraine, soybeans are facing downward price pressure. GMO soybeans are being sold at USD 0,36–0,38 per kg at Black Sea ports, while non-GMO soybeans are priced slightly higher at USD 0,40–0,41 per kg. Domestic processors are purchasing soybeans at USD 0,37–0,39 per kg, reflecting reduced demand.

Final Words

Argentina’s ongoing dry weather is expected to drive short-term price increases for soybeans. However, with Brazil’s harvest anticipated to begin later this month, global prices may ease as more supply enters the market. Traders and industry stakeholders should stay alert to these developments, balancing current opportunities with the likelihood of future price corrections.





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