The Growing Threat to Food Security

Climate change is expected to reduce rice and wheat yields in India by 6–10%. These staple crops feed India’s 1.4 billion people, with 80% relying on subsidized grains through government schemes. Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and water shortages are making it harder for farmers to sustain crop yields, threatening access to affordable food.

How Climate Change Affects India’s Rice and Wheat Yields

India’s rice and wheat production reached record highs in the 2023-24 crop year, with 113.29 million tonnes of wheat and 137 million tonnes of rice harvested. Together, these account for a significant portion of the global food supply. However, climate change is now reducing crop yields by affecting weather patterns critical to farming.

• Rising Temperatures: India’s average temperature increased by 0.7°C between 1901 and 2018. This warming trend is limiting the growth period for wheat and rice, reducing overall yields.
• Declining Rainfall: The frequency and strength of Western Disturbances, which bring winter rain to northwest India, have decreased due to global warming. This has reduced the water available for irrigation.

Food Security Risks for Farmers and Communities

About 50% of India’s population depends on agriculture for their livelihoods, and more than 80% of farmers are small-scale producers with less than two hectares of land. These farmers are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, which are:

1. Lower Yields: Projections from the National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA) indicate wheat yields could drop by 6–25% by 2100, while irrigated rice yields may decrease by 7% by 2050 and 10% by 2080.
2. Livelihood Challenges: Rising ocean temperatures are forcing fish to move into deeper, cooler waters, reducing catches near the coast and affecting fishing communities.

Water Scarcity from Melting Glaciers

The Himalayas and the Hindu Kush, known as the Third Pole, hold the largest water resources outside the Arctic and Antarctic. Rivers originating from these mountain ranges support one-seventh of the world’s population, including 2 billion people in India and China.

However, climate change is disrupting this critical water supply:

• Decreasing Snowfall: Reduced Western Disturbances mean less snow accumulation, while melting glaciers are increasing water runoff.
• Future Risks: Water availability is shrinking as snow inputs decline, threatening food security for millions.

Extreme Weather Increases Instability

Climate change is intensifying extreme weather events, making them more frequent and harder to predict. For example:

• Lead times for heavy rainfall predictions have reduced from three days to 1.5 days, complicating disaster management.
• Simultaneous weather events, like floods and droughts, are becoming more common, disrupting agriculture and food supply chains.

Steps Needed to Protect Food Security

To safeguard India’s food security, immediate actions are necessary:

1. Adopt Climate-Resilient Agriculture: Develop and promote drought-resistant crop varieties.
2. Improve Water Management: Invest in efficient irrigation systems and better water storage infrastructure.
3. Support Vulnerable Farmers: Expand subsidies and insurance schemes to protect small and marginal farmers from climate risks.

Conclusion: A Call for Action

The impact of climate change on India’s food security is undeniable, threatening both agriculture and water resources. Declining rice and wheat yields, coupled with water scarcity and extreme weather, demand urgent measures to protect the livelihoods of millions and ensure the nation’s food supply remains stable.

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