Wheat Prices Decline as Markets Await USDA Report

Global wheat prices saw a decline ahead of the USDA’s January report, which is expected to include upward revisions to Australia’s wheat harvest and Argentina’s production estimates. Anticipation around winter wheat planting figures and ending stock projections also contributed to the bearish sentiment.

Futures Performance on Global Exchanges

On the futures markets, March wheat contracts showed mixed trends:

• Chicago (SRW) fell by 1.2% to $0,197/kg (-2.9% for the week).
• Kansas City (HRW) declined 1.1% to $0,2021/kg (-0.7%).
• Minneapolis (HRS) dropped 1.7% to $0,215/kg (-1.9%).
• Euronext Paris held steady at $0,2377/kg.

US wheat crop conditions failed to provide price support, with only 47% of Kansas winter wheat rated good to excellent, down from 55% in late November.

Egypt and India’s Domestic Wheat Challenges

Egypt increased wheat imports by 40% in 2024 to 14 million tons, compared to 10 million tons in 2023. The surge reflects higher commercial enterprise supplies, even as the state agency GASC reduced purchases.

In India, wheat prices hit record levels amid tight supplies and robust demand from flour mills. The government has been releasing 100,000 tons of wheat weekly to wholesale buyers, but this has not sufficiently eased the pressure on milling operations. Experts suggest increasing sales to stabilize prices.

Ukraine’s Wheat Exports and Black Sea Demand

Ukraine’s wheat exports in the 2024/25 marketing year reached 9.98 million tons, surpassing the previous season’s 7.8 million tons for the same period. Export demand prices in Black Sea ports remain at $0,210-$0,216/kg for food wheat and $0,205-$0,208/kg for feed wheat. However, producers continue to hold back sales, waiting for more favorable market conditions.

Jordan’s Purchase Signals Buyers’ Negotiation Power

Jordan’s Ministry of Industry and Trade procured 60,000 tons of food wheat for March shipment at $0,2689/kg C&F, slightly below initial bid prices of $0,2705-$0,283/kg. This transaction highlights the willingness of buyers to negotiate lower prices, even for smaller lots.

Conclusion

Global wheat markets remain influenced by expectations from USDA updates, domestic supply-demand dynamics, and strategic purchasing behavior in key markets like Egypt, India, and Ukraine. While near-term fluctuations are likely, global production updates and export trends will continue to shape pricing.





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