Market Update: CBoT Wheat Prices Show Slight Recovery for 2025 Contracts

Wheat prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) exhibited modest increases for 2025 contracts in early trading on January 10, 2025. Longer-dated contracts for 2026 and 2027 remained under pressure, reflecting broader bearish sentiment.

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CBoT Price Summary (10.01.2025, 09:30)

2025 contracts saw marginal gains, with all actively traded months closing slightly higher (+0.25 US cents/bu) except for December, which remained unchanged. These gains are attributed to short-term technical buying ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report, expected to provide updated supply and demand data.

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Performance of 2026 and 2027 Contracts

Longer-dated contracts continued to trend lower, with declines reflecting improved global production outlooks and reduced speculative interest.

2027 contracts showed similarly bearish sentiment, with marginal declines across all maturities. Limited volume and open interest for these contracts indicate reduced trading activity in distant maturities.

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Key Market Drivers

1. Anticipation of WASDE Report:
   • Traders await the USDA WASDE report, due for release tomorrow (9 January 2025, 6:00 PM EST). Historically, January reports have provided bullish price support, with March futures rising in 17 of 25 instances since 2000.
2. Improved Production Outlook:
   • Favorable weather conditions in major wheat-producing regions, including Australia, Canada, and the U.S., continue to weigh on longer-term contracts.
   • Increased exports from the Black Sea region, particularly Ukraine, also add pressure.
3. Short-Term Technical Adjustments:
   • Modest gains in 2025 contracts are largely technical, driven by repositioning ahead of the WASDE report.

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Global Market Developments

• Ukraine Exports: Total grain exports have reached 22.4 million tons, up 15.5% year-over-year, with wheat exports increasing by 28% to 10 million tons.
• Südkorea: The announcement of a 125,000-ton wheat purchase, with at least half expected to originate from the U.S., supports demand.

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Outlook

While short-term price movements for 2025 contracts appear stable, longer-dated contracts remain under pressure due to improved global supply expectations. The WASDE report could provide crucial insights into the U.S. and global wheat balance, potentially influencing the next price direction.