Rising Prices Driven by Limited Supply

Barley prices in Ukraine are increasing as farmers reduce sales, bolstered by strong earnings from earlier rapeseed and sunflower sales. The ongoing devaluation of the hryvnia and rising prices for corn, wheat, and barley are also pushing prices higher.

The hryvnia has weakened, and the exchange rate now stands at approximately USD 0,024 per UAH, contributing to higher barley prices in USD terms. This shift, along with strong export demand, has accelerated the growth of feed barley prices.

Current Prices in Key Markets

• Black Sea Feed Barley: USD 0,219–0,224 per kg
• Danube Feed Barley: USD 0,2–0,201 per kg
• Domestic Feed Barley (FCA): USD 0,2–0,203 per kg
• Malting Barley (Domestic): USD 0,212 per kg

Prices for feed corn and feed wheat have also risen, now standing at USD 0,205–0,206 per kg and USD 0,207–0,209 per kg, respectively, further supporting barley price increases.

Export Trends and Slowing January Sales

Ukraine exported 1,976 million tonnes of barley during the 2024/25 marketing year (as of January 8), marking a 71% increase from last year’s 1,15 million tonnes. However, January exports have slowed significantly, with only 8,000 tonnes shipped in the first eight days compared to 80,000 tonnes during the same period last year.

Domestic demand for malting barley remains low due to difficulties in selling malt in global markets. Ukrainian processors are offering USD 0,212 per kg, but the lack of demand for malt continues to suppress prices.

Impact of Declining Alcohol Consumption

The demand for beer and other alcoholic beverages is declining worldwide. Younger generations are spending less time in bars or social gatherings, favoring gadgets and healthier lifestyles instead.

In Ukraine, the impact of the war has further reduced alcohol consumption. Sales of alcoholic beverages have dropped by 53% since 2022, with wine sales falling by 58% and beer by 34% compared to 2021 levels.

Conclusion

Barley prices in Ukraine are climbing due to limited supply, rising export demand, and a weakening currency. Feed barley prices are rising faster than malting barley, which continues to face weak global demand. The interplay between export dynamics and domestic challenges will shape Ukraine’s barley market in the coming months.





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