Market Report: Mixed Developments in Wheat Prices at CBoT and Euronext
Wheat markets at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) and Euronext (MATIF) showed mixed trends at the beginning of this week. While prices at Euronext remained stable, CBoT contracts displayed divergence, with near-term contracts declining and longer-dated contracts gaining. Friday's WASDE report, increasing U.S. wheat acreage, and competitive Black Sea wheat heavily influenced market activity.
Euronext: Wheat Prices Stable but Sentiment Remains Weak
On Monday,
January 13, 2025, wheat futures at Euronext showed no price movements. The
next maturity in March remained unchanged at 234 EUR/t, while other contracts through 2027 remained steady.
- Pressure from Black Sea Wheat:
- Cheap wheat from Romania, priced at 237–238 USD/t (approximately 232 EUR/t) with 12.5% protein content, continues to trade below Russian export prices.
- While shipments from Russia and Ukraine have declined, the market remains well-supplied with competitively priced Romanian wheat.
- Muted Impact of WASDE Report: Friday’s WASDE report triggered some buying activity, but overall sentiment remains subdued due to export challenges for Western European wheat.
CBoT: Mixed Movements Across Contracts
At the CBoT, near-term contracts weakened while longer-dated contracts posted gains:
- Short-Term Weakness: The March 2025 contract declined by -1.50 ct/bu, closing at 543.50 ct/bu (190 EUR/t), while the September 2025 contract for the new crop rose by +0.9%, closing at 568.50 ct/bu (199 EUR/t).
- Long-Term Strength: Gains in 2026 and 2027 contracts reflect optimism for the global demand outlook, with December 2026 and March 2027 contracts gaining over +10.00 US cents/bu.
Impact of the WASDE Report
The
WASDE report, released on Friday, brought minimal changes to wheat compared to the December report. However, significant downward revisions in U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks temporarily influenced the wheat market.
- CBoT (Soft Red Winter): Near-term contracts closed in negative territory on Friday.
- Kansas (Hard Red Winter): The March contract added +1.5 ct to close at 551.75 ct/bu.
- MIAX (Spring Wheat): Gained +0.75 ct, closing at 584.25 ct/bu.
Increased U.S. Winter Wheat Acreage Pressures Market
The USDA reported higher-than-expected U.S. winter wheat acreage for the 2025 harvest, estimated at
34.115 million acres, an increase of
+725,000 acres (+0.5%) from the previous year.
- Market Expectations: Trade estimates ranged from 32.5 to 34.28 million acres, with an average forecast of 33.37 million acres.
- Market Impact: The increase in acreage added to bearish sentiment, with traders anticipating additional supply pressure in the long term.
Summary and Outlook
- Euronext: Despite price stability, challenges from cheaper Black Sea wheat continue to weigh on Western European exports.
- CBoT: Short-term contracts remain under pressure, while gains in longer-dated contracts suggest optimism for future demand.
- Key Influences:
- Rising U.S. wheat acreage could add supply-side pressure.
- Competitive pricing from Eastern Europe and geopolitical factors remain key variables.
Outlook: This week, market dynamics are expected to be influenced by weather developments, export activity, and demand from key Asian markets. Traders should also monitor the impact of U.S. acreage expansion and price competition from the Black Sea region.
