Rapeseed Market Stabilizes After Strong Gains, Soybean Rally Supports Global Oilseed Markets
Rapeseed Market Stabilizes After Strong Gains, Soybean Rally Supports Global Oilseed Markets
Euronext Rapeseed Overview
Following significant gains last week, the rapeseed market on Euronext (MATIF) showed stability on January 13, 2025, with all contracts trading flat. The February 2025 contract ended at €541.25/t, reflecting a slight pullback from the recent rally and breaking a five-day winning streak. Later contracts, such as May 2025, remained unchanged at €540/t, continuing to attract the highest liquidity with an open interest of 85,224 contracts.Despite limited price action, the market remained supported by global factors, including a weaker euro, which enhances the competitiveness of EU rapeseed exports.
Global Oilseed Market Drivers
- Soybean Rally on CBoT:
- Soybeans on the CBoT continued their rally, with the March 2025 contract climbing 27.75 cents to 1,053 cents/bu, its highest level in three months.
- The rally was fueled by strong buying interest following the USDA WASDE report, which unexpectedly reduced U.S. soybean yield and production estimates.
- The report prompted speculative traders to shift from net short to likely net long positions, reflecting growing bullish sentiment.
- Canola Gains in Canada:
- The March Canola contract on the ICE in Winnipeg gained 6.10 CAD to 647.70 CAD/t, moving above key technical averages and signalling continued strength.
- Palm Oil in Malaysia:
- Malaysian palm oil futures followed the strength in soy oil on Chicago and Dalian markets, supported by rising crude oil prices and tightening supplies.
Key Influences on the Market
- USDA WASDE Report Impact:
- U.S. soybean production was revised down to 4.366 billion bushels (118.8 million tonnes), with global stocks also reduced to 128.4 million tonnes, below market expectations.
- The reduced supply outlook has provided bullish momentum for oilseeds across markets.
- Brazilian Soybean Harvest:
- Harvesting in Brazil is slightly delayed due to rain, but production forecasts remain strong. AgResource raised its estimate to 172 million tonnes, exceeding the USDA’s forecast of 169 million tonnes.
- Crude Oil Influence:
- Rising crude oil prices, reaching a five-month high, provided additional support for oilseed markets. U.S. sanctions on Russian crude oil exports raised supply concerns, further boosting sentiment.
Market Summary
The rapeseed market at Euronext remains stable following last week’s gains, supported by strong global oilseed fundamentals. The soybean rally, combined with tight crude oil supplies and robust demand for biofuels, continues to underpin the broader market.With high open interest in mid-term contracts like May 2025 and technical resistance levels approaching for February 2025, the rapeseed market is poised for potential price action, depending on global developments.