Market Report: Corn Futures Continue Upward Trend

Teaser: Corn futures at the CBoT and Euronext hit new highs on Monday. The March contract at the CBoT rose by 6 ct/bu to 476.5 ct/bu (approximately 187.8 EUR/t), while the Euronext March 2025 contract increased by 2.50 EUR to 216.25 EUR/t. Reduced U.S. harvests and higher exports continue to push prices upward.

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Corn Prices Reach Seven-Month HighCorn futures at the CBoT and Euronext extended their gains on Monday. The March 2025 contract at the CBoT closed up 6 ct/bu at 476.5 ct/bu (equivalent to 187.8 EUR/t). Meanwhile, the March 2025 contract at Euronext rose by 2.50 EUR to 216.25 EUR/t, the highest level since October 2024.

Drivers of the RallyThe rally continues to be driven by reduced U.S. corn harvests and the resulting supply tightness. According to the latest WASDE report, the USDA reduced its 2024/25 U.S. corn production forecast by 7 million tons to 377.6 million tons, while ending stocks were lowered from 1.74 billion bushels (approximately 44.2 million tons) to 1.54 billion bushels (about 39 million tons).

Export Data and Fund ActivityExport inspections also supported the upward momentum, with 1.44 million tons of U.S. corn shipped during the week ending January 9, a 64% increase compared to the previous week. Meanwhile, commodity funds increased their net-long positions (bets on rising prices) by 24,540 contracts to 253,346 contracts, according to the CFTC report for the week ending January 7. Analysts estimate that fund positions have since risen to 300,000 contracts, the highest level in nearly two years.

Focus on BrazilIn Brazil, the first corn harvest—which accounts for roughly a quarter of total production—has begun, with 1.3% of the crop harvested as of last Thursday. AgResource now estimates Brazil's total corn production at 122.39 million tons, down 1.17 million tons from the previous forecast.

OutlookTight U.S. supply, robust export demand, and strong fund activity are likely to continue supporting corn prices in the near term. However, farmer sales at attractive price levels could cap further gains. Market participants will closely monitor the progress of the Brazilian harvest and upcoming USDA reports for additional insights.