Russia Focuses on Wheat: Export Share Could Reach Historic Levels in 2025

Russia plans to increase the share of wheat in its grain exports in 2025, supported by strict export restrictions on other grains such as corn, barley, and rye. The goal is to secure domestic supply and minimize price volatility in global markets.

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Export Restrictions and Quota Policy

Between February 15 and June 30, 2025, the Russian government set an export quota of 10.6 million tons of grain for countries outside the Eurasian Economic Union. The quota is distributed as follows:

• Wheat: Fully exportable within the quota.
• Corn, Barley, and Rye: Exports are capped at 0 tons during this period.

According to Deputy Agriculture Minister Maxim Titov, these measures will likely increase wheat's share in total grain exports. Historically, wheat accounts for approximately 80% of Russia’s grain exports, and this figure could rise slightly in 2025.

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Current Export Figures

In the ongoing agricultural season (2024/25), Russia has exported 34.257 million tons of grain and pulses by January, a decline of 5.4% compared to the same period in 2022/23. Breakdown of key export figures:

• Wheat: Increased by 0.7% to 30 million tons.
• Barley: Fell by 27% to 2.9 million tons.
• Corn: Dropped by 46% to 1.284 million tons.

The total grain export forecast for 2024/25 is 55–60 million tons, despite the recent restrictions.

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Wheat Market in a Global Context

Russia’s strategy reinforces its position as the leading wheat exporter globally. Analysts predict that Russian wheat exports for this season may fall below last year’s record of 52.4 million tons but remain above the five-year average of 40.9 million tons.

At the same time, low wheat prices from other Black Sea countries, such as Romania, intensify competition. Romanian wheat, priced at $237–238 per ton (approximately €232 per ton) for 12.5% protein wheat, remains a strong competitor to Russian exporters.

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USDA Forecasts and Implications

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts Russian wheat exports for the 2024/25 crop year to reach 48 million tons. Despite export restrictions on other grains, Russia is expected to maintain its position as the world's leading wheat exporter.

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Long-Term Implications

Russia's export strategy will significantly impact the global grain market:

1. Wheat Dominance: The focus on wheat is likely to reshape global trade flows, especially in price-sensitive regions.
2. Reduced Availability of Corn and Barley: Export restrictions on these grains could tighten global supply and lead to price increases.
3. Price Support: By capping total export volumes for wheat, Russia can maintain controlled supply levels, potentially stabilizing international prices.

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Conclusion

Russia’s recalibration of its export policy underscores its pivotal role in the global wheat trade. The introduction of export quotas and the emphasis on wheat secure domestic market stability while bolstering export revenues. Market participants should closely monitor developments, as these measures could significantly shape international grain markets throughout 2025.