Market Report Wheat: Stable Euronext Prices, Mixed Signals at CBoT

On Tuesday, January 15, 2025, wheat markets at Euronext and the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) showed divergent trends. While Euronext prices remained stable, CBoT wheat futures saw losses across most contracts following Monday's gains.

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Euronext: Stable Prices

Wheat futures at Euronext closed flat on Tuesday, with the next maturity in March 2025 unchanged at €234/t. The weaker euro, reaching its lowest level since November 2022, continues to support export opportunities for Western European wheat. However, global demand remains subdued, limiting the market’s upside potential.

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CBoT: Price Declines After Gains

The CBoT saw losses across all contracts as the market corrected after Monday’s strong performance:

• Short-Term Decline: The March contract fell -2.75 ct/bu but remained above 543.50 ct/bu (€195/t).
• Longer-Term Contracts: Contracts through 2027 also posted moderate losses, with declines ranging from -0.15% to -0.36%.

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Key Drivers

1. Profit-Taking: Monday’s gains led to profit-taking and a brief market correction.
2. Strong US Dollar: The robust US dollar continues weighing on US wheat's export competitiveness.
3. Supportive Factors: In Kansas, forecasts for cold and dry weather in Hard Red Winter wheat-growing regions provided some price support.

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Exports and Speculative Positions

• US Export Inspections:
  • Wheat inspections for the week ending January 9 totalled 288,895 tons, in line with expectations (200,000–450,000 tons).
  • Mexico (121,333 tons), Japan (53,938 tons), and South Korea (30,524 tons) were the top buyers.
  • Cumulative exports for the 2024/25 marketing year have reached 13.01 million tons, a 25% increase compared to the previous year.
• Speculative Positions:
  • At the CBoT, speculative net short positions increased by 1,875 contracts, reaching 88,637 contracts.
  • In Kansas, net short positions decreased by 2,003 contracts, settling at 31,858 contracts.

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Russia: Declining Exports

Russian wheat exports continue to fall. SovEcon estimates January shipments at 2 million tons, significantly below the 3.6 million tons exported in January 2024. This aligns with a broader downward trend in monthly exports since October 2024.

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Summary and Outlook

1. Euronext: Prices remain stable, supported by a weaker euro, but export demand remains a key challenge.
2. CBoT: Losses reflect short-term profit-taking after Monday’s gains, while export data and speculative positions suggest underlying demand remains steady.
3. Russia: Declining exports may tighten global supplies in the medium term.

Outlook: Future price movements will depend on export performance, weather conditions, and currency trends. In the US, the market will be influenced by the decisions of speculative investors and continued demand from key global buyers.



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