Rapeseed Market Continues Correction Amid Global Oilseed Pressure
Rapeseed Market Continues Correction Amid Global Oilseed Pressure
Euronext Rapeseed Market
The correction in the Euronext rapeseed market extended into Tuesday, with the February contract falling by €4 to close at €537.25/t. This marks a continuation of the downward trend that began on Monday. The weakness in rapeseed mirrored declines in related oilseeds globally.Global Oilseed Developments
- Chicago Soybean Market (CBoT):
- The March soybean contract dropped 5.5 cents to 1,047.5 cents/bu.
- While soybean meal also declined, soybean oil posted gains, reflecting mixed dynamics within the soy complex.
- Canadian Canola Market (ICE):
- The March Canola contract closed 6.10 CAD lower at 641.60 CAD/t, weighed down by concerns over potential U.S. import tariffs under the Trump administration.
- The competitive pricing of Canola compared to European rapeseed added pressure.
- Brazilian Soybean Prospects:
- Brazil's Conab slightly increased its 2024/2025 soybean production estimate to 166.32 million tonnes, citing favourable weather and a minor increase in planted area.
- This represents a record production, 12.6% higher than the previous season.
- Despite the upward revision, the estimate remains below private sector forecasts of 167 to 173 million tonnes and the USDA's projection of 169 million tonnes.
- Argentinian Soybean Crop:
- While dry conditions in Argentina have raised concerns, expected rainfall this weekend could provide relief.
Palm Oil Market
- Malaysian palm oil futures fell on Tuesday as investors locked in profits after two strong sessions.
- By Wednesday morning, the market showed signs of recovery, supported by:
- Declining palm oil stocks.
- High crude oil prices.
- However, India’s palm oil imports dropped 41% in December, reaching a nine-month low due to high prices, prompting refiners to favour soy oil instead.
U.S. Soybean Export and Processing Data
- The USDA confirmed a second consecutive sale of 198,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China within two days, highlighting continued demand.
- Traders are awaiting the NOPA processing data for December, with expectations of a record 205.5 million bushels processed, representing:
- A 6.4% increase compared to November 2024.
- A 5.2% increase compared to December 2023.
Outlook
The global oilseed market remains under pressure due to strong soybean production forecasts in Brazil and mixed demand dynamics. However, rising crude oil prices and U.S. soybean export demand offer some support. The rapeseed market may continue to face headwinds unless there is a shift in global fundamentals or weather-driven disruptions.
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