Rising EU Sugar Stocks in 2024/2025: Will Prices Hold Under Pressure?

EU Sugar Market 2024/2025: Rising Stock Levels and Potential Price Impacts

Current Market Developments

The EU sugar market faces significant challenges as stock levels are expected to rise sharply in the 2024/2025 marketing year. At the same time, prices remain stable despite global declines. Current FCA prices in the EU range between €0.54/kg and €0.56/kg, while global ICE sugar prices (No. 5) continue their downward trend.

ICE Sugar Prices (No. 5)

• March 2025: €434.70/t (-1.84%)
• May 2025: €437.83/t (-2.00%)
• August 2025: €430.93/t (-1.94%)
• October 2025: €430.47/t (-1.99%)
• December 2025: €434.61/t (-1.71%)

Despite global price pressure, the EU market remains resilient due to strategic interventions by the sugar industry.

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Stock Level Trends and Projections

A key question for 2024/2025 is how the rising stock levels will affect price stability. Here is a breakdown of recent trends:

Reasons for Rising Stock Levels

1. Production: A projected output of 14.8 million tons reflects slight growth, supported by favourable conditions.
2. Decreasing Consumption: Consumption is expected to decline slightly to 14.0 million tons, influenced by the shift toward sugar alternatives.
3. Stable Imports: Imports, particularly from Ukraine, remain steady at 1.9 million tons, contributing to the surplus.
4. Moderate Exports: EU sugar exports are forecasted at 0.6 million tons, insufficient to offset the surplus.

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Potential Impacts on Prices

1. Price Pressure from High Stock Levels:
   • Increasing stocks could force EU producers to lower prices, especially if global markets remain bearish.
2. Industry Strategies:
   • The EU sugar industry has historically managed to stabilize prices through targeted exports and internal pricing policies, a strategy that may be utilized again.
3. Long-Term Uncertainties:
   • Persistent stock increases could necessitate structural adjustments to maintain market stability.

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Conclusion

The EU sugar market is entering a pivotal phase. With stock levels projected to reach 2.3 million tons in 2024/2025, price stability is under growing pressure. While the sugar industry has proven its ability to manage prices in the past, rising competition from imports and surplus stocks presents new challenges. Market participants should closely monitor developments and adopt flexible strategies to navigate the evolving landscape effectively.



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