Weather Impacts Soybean Market

Recent dry weather in Argentina and a reduced U.S. soybean harvest forecast significantly boosted global soybean prices. This shift heightened export demand, including from Ukraine, which saw an increase in prices over the past week.

Export and Domestic Prices in Ukraine

Export demand prices for GMO soybeans in Ukraine rose by USD 0,38-0,40 per kg delivered to Black Sea ports. However, processors, holding ample stocks, maintained factory delivery prices at UAH 16,800-17,500 per tonne. The rise in sunflower oil prices encouraged factories to refocus on sunflower processing, reducing soybean meal production due to sluggish sales.

Non-GMO soybean export prices remain subdued at USD 0,41-0,42 per kg, reflecting minimal premiums for GMO-free certification. Meanwhile, processors raised their prices to UAH 18,500-19,000 per tonne, but demand remains cautious, awaiting price stabilization.

European Soybean Imports Surge

In the 2024/25 marketing year, EU soybean imports rose 14% to 7,38 million tonnes. The U.S. supplied 48,5%, followed by Brazil at 33,5%, and Ukraine contributed 11,5% (845,000 tonnes), highlighting Ukraine’s growing share in European markets.

Global Price Movements

On the Chicago Board of Trade, March soybean futures rose by 6% following the USDA report but later corrected by 1% to USD 0,38 per kg. Speculative trading remains influenced by weather updates, with Argentina’s forecasted rains dampening price increases. However, the heatwave next week, with temperatures reaching 30-35°C, could exacerbate crop stress and reignite price volatility.

US Soybean Processing on the Rise

The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported a 7% monthly increase in U.S. soybean processing to a record 5,62 million tonnes in December. Soybean oil stocks also hit a 5-month high of 563,000 tonnes, although they remain 9,1% lower than December 2023.

Brazil Remains Positive

Favorable weather in Brazil, characterized by ample rainfall, supports robust soybean and corn crop development, offsetting some global supply concerns.





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