California Walnut Crop Shrinks by 26%

California's walnut industry is facing a challenging season, with a 26% smaller crop compared to last year. The total crop size is estimated at 607,070 short tons, significantly lower than the 823,540 short tons recorded in 2023. This reduction reflects a return to historical averages, with crop receipts now aligning with 13-year trends of 98.2%.

Inventory Levels Show a Sharp Decline

Gross inventories have dropped to 448,600 tons as of December 2024, down 30% from 611,961 tons in 2023. Sales and commitments also mirror the smaller crop, with inshell sales reaching just 67% of last year's levels and kernel sales at 82%. Overall, commitments stand at 190,000 tons, a decline from 241,290 tons last year.

Smaller Supplies Struggle to Meet Demand

Current supplies are insufficient to match last year’s shipment volumes. California's available inventory of 258,603 tons is unlikely to fulfill the demand seen between January and August 2024, when net sales totaled 275,928 tons. Key grades like 'Export Light' and Combo walnut kernels are already in short supply, while Chandler variety kernels remain the focus for many packers.

Chile’s Role in Balancing the Market

Chile’s projected 170,000 metric ton walnut crop offers some relief. However, it will primarily serve markets like India, MENA/Turkey, and Asia, leaving California to manage kernel demand. Even with Chile’s contribution, global walnut supplies will remain tight.

Strong Demand Expected for 2025 Crop

California's low inventories are expected to lead to strong early demand for the 2025 crop. Maintaining adequate carry-out inventory will require significant sales restraint. The focus will likely remain on premium-grade kernels, with minimal room for inshell shipments.





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