Record Wheat Output in 2024–25

The USDA projects that global wheat production for the 2024–25 season will reach a record 793.2 million tonnes. This abundant supply, combined with higher consumption of 801.9 million tonnes, will reduce carryover stocks to 258.8 million tonnes, marking a nine-year low.

Wheat prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) continue to reflect downward trends. BMI revised its forecast for the 2025 average second-month CBOT-listed wheat price to USD 0,21 per kg (USD 5,80 per bushel) from its earlier estimate of USD 0,22 per kg (USD 6,05 per bushel).

Similarly, the USDA adjusted the all-wheat season-average farm price down to USD 0,20 per kg (USD 5,55 per bushel) from its previous projection, considering the current market trends and futures prices.

Tight Supplies May Prevent Steeper Declines

BMI analysts emphasize that global wheat ending stocks will decline by 3.6% year-on-year, reaching their lowest level since the 2015–16 season. Russian wheat production will drop by over 10%, to 81.5 million tonnes, leading to a 30% reduction in ending stocks at 8.2 million tonnes—the lowest since 2019–20.

European wheat production also suffered a 9% decline, bringing the output below 123 million tonnes. Poor weather during the winter of 2023 impacted plantings and yields in key European regions.

Traders Maintain Bearish Positions

In December, traders took a net short position of 95,009 contracts in wheat futures, showing bearish sentiment despite tightening global supplies. Large carryover stocks in the US, estimated at 22 million tonnes, continue to weigh on market confidence.

Factors Influencing Wheat Prices

Analysts highlight several risks that could shape wheat prices in 2025:

• Geopolitical Risks: The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict could disrupt exports and destabilize supply chains.
• Weather Impact: La Niña conditions may harm wheat production in key regions.
• Trade Policies: Donald Trump’s presidency could lead to export challenges, especially with US-China trade relations.

Conclusion

Farmers and traders face a complex market in 2025 as record wheat production competes with tightening global supplies and geopolitical uncertainties. While prices may remain under pressure in the short term, tightening supplies and regional risks could provide price support later in the year





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