Corn Futures Surge to One-Year High as Global Supply Concerns Persist

Corn futures ended the week on a bullish note, with the March contract at CBOT gaining 9.75 ct to 484.25 ct/bu (approximately 186 EUR/t), marking a one-year high. Meanwhile, Euronext corn rose by 1.50 EUR to 214 EUR/t, supported by tightening global supplies and strong demand.

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CBOT: Corn Futures Close Strong Across ContractsCorn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) posted significant gains on Friday. The March 2025 contract rose by 9.75 ct/bu (+2.05%) to 484.25 ct/bu (approximately 186 EUR/t). Other key contracts also showed robust performance:

Euronext: Modest Weekly GainsAt Euronext, corn futures mirrored the upward momentum. The March 2025 contract increased by 1.50 EUR (+0.7%) to 214 EUR/t, representing a modest weekly gain of 0.25 EUR (+0.1%).

Market Drivers:

1. Adverse Weather in Argentina: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported a deterioration in corn crop conditions, with only 39% rated good or excellent, down from 42% last week. Poor or very poor conditions rose to 14%, compared to just 3% a year ago. These developments, combined with ongoing drought and heat, continue to drive supply concerns.
2. Reduced Global Supplies: The International Grains Council lowered its global corn production forecast for 2024/25 by 6 million tons to 1.219 billion tons, adding to bullish sentiment.
3. Strong Export Demand: The USDA reported higher-than-expected weekly export sales of 1.024 million tons, surpassing analyst forecasts and reinforcing strong international demand.

Investor Sentiment Boosts RallyThe CFTC report for the week ending January 14 revealed that financial investors significantly increased their net-long positions in corn futures, up by 38,882 contracts to 292,228, the highest level since May 2022.

Holiday Notice:Markets in the U.S. will be closed on Monday, January 20, in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Weekly government reports will be delayed by one day.

Outlook:Corn prices are likely to remain firm amid tightening global supplies, strong export demand, and weather concerns in Argentina. Market participants will closely monitor upcoming export data and weather forecasts to gauge further market direction.

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