Rapeseed Prices Edge Higher at Euronext – Oilseed Markets Face Uncertainty
Rapeseed prices at Euronext gained slightly ahead of the weekend. The most traded May futures rose by
€5.75 to €530.25/t, though the weekly loss of
€8 (-1.5%) remained. In contrast, the soybean complex at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) showed positive momentum, with March soybeans climbing by
15 cents to 1,034 cents/bu (€370/t), resulting in a
weekly gain of 20.5 cents (+2.0%).
CBoT Market Developments
- Trade Policy Uncertainty:Following Donald Trump’s inauguration, traders are looking for clarity on trade policies, especially regarding China. A phone call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping was well-received, but short-term U.S. soybean exports to China are expected to decline due to high Chinese stockpiles and the start of the Brazilian harvest.
- CFTC Report:The latest report revealed that speculators have shifted their sentiment. As of January 14, funds moved from a net short position of 28,612 contracts to a net long position of 34,833 contracts, marking the first bullish stance in over a year.
Global Oilseed Markets
- Brazil and Argentina:While Brazil's harvest outlook remains positive, conditions in Argentina are deteriorating. Only 32% of soybean crops are rated good to excellent (down from 49% the previous week), while poor to very poor ratings jumped from 8% to 21%.
- Palm Oil:Malaysian palm oil futures ended a four-day slide with a modest gain on Friday (+7 MYR to 4,193 MYR/t). However, the weekly decline of 4.5% highlights continued pressure. Lower prices have improved palm oil's competitiveness against soybean oil, though it remains relatively expensive.
- Canola:Canadian canola recovered slightly, with March futures at ICE rising by 9.20 CAD to 616 CAD/t, limiting the weekly loss to 4.0%. Uncertainty about future U.S. trade relations weighs on the market, though robust export demand, particularly from China, has provided some support.
Conclusion
Rapeseed prices at Euronext and global oilseed markets remain influenced by political uncertainties and mixed production outlooks. While speculative buying has buoyed soybeans, ongoing challenges in palm oil and canola markets persist. Future price developments will heavily depend on South American harvest updates and U.S. trade policies.
