Corn Prices Steady as South American Weather Drives Market

Corn markets remained stable on Monday, with Euronext futures showing slight gains while CBOT futures climbed in early electronic trading after the holiday weekend. Dryness in Argentina and delays in Brazil's soybean harvest weigh on supply prospects.

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Euronext: Limited Movement in Corn FuturesAt Euronext, corn prices were steady. The March 2025 contract edged up by 0.25 EUR (+0.1%) to close at 214.25 EUR/t. Trading activity was subdued as market participants awaited the reopening of CBOT after the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday.

CBOT: Gains in Electronic TradingCorn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) showed strength in early electronic trading. The March 2025 contract rose to 490.5 ct/bu, marking the highest level for the most active contract since December 2023.

Key Drivers:

1. Dry Conditions in Argentina: Weekend rainfall in Argentina’s key growing regions was insufficient to ease concerns about crop damage caused by prolonged dryness. This continues to underpin prices.
2. Delays in Brazil’s Soybean Harvest: Excessive rainfall in Mato Grosso, Brazil's largest grain-producing region, has significantly slowed the soybean harvest.
   • Impact on Safrinha Corn: The delayed soybean harvest pushes back the planting of the second corn crop (Safrinha), which accounts for 75% of Brazil's total corn production. The ideal planting window for safrinha corn in Mato Grosso closes in late February, raising the risk of yield losses if planting is delayed.

Outlook:Weather conditions in South America remain a key factor influencing global corn markets. The delayed soybean harvest in Brazil and persistent dryness in Argentina are heightening concerns about global supply tightness. Market participants will focus on the reopening of CBOT trading and upcoming export reports for further direction.

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