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Michael

Jan 22, 2025

Rapeseed on Euronext Stable, Slight Decline for Soybeans on CBoT

Rapeseed on Euronext Stable, Slight Decline for Soybeans on CBoT

Rapeseed on Euronext Stable, Slight Decline for Soybeans on CBoT

The rapeseed market on Euronext remained stable on Tuesday. The May future, the most traded contract, closed unchanged at €532.75/t. Modest gains in later contracts reflected a generally steady market sentiment, while uncertainties over future trade relationships linger.

On the CBoT, soybeans experienced slight declines. The March contract dropped by 5.75 cents to 1,061.50 cents/bu (approximately €390/t). Nearby contracts also registered losses between 5 and 6 cents, driven by profit-taking and a firmer US dollar.




Market Drivers

Rapeseed Market

  • Euronext: Despite tight supplies on the European market and solid support levels, trading on Tuesday remained quiet.
  • Canadian Canola: Prices at ICE Winnipeg saw a slight recovery, with the March contract closing at CAD 631.90/t, buoyed by hopes that Canadian exports to the US will not face immediate tariff increases. However, President Trump’s recent announcements on trade policy remain a potential risk.

Soybeans

  • Brazil: Harvest delays caused by persistent rainfall in Mato Grosso remain a key issue. Brazilian production forecasts are optimistic, with the trade group Abiove recently raising its estimate to 171.7 million tons.
  • Argentina: Dry weather continues to impact crop expectations, with early reports indicating poorer crop conditions compared to last year.
  • US Exports: According to the USDA inspection report, 973,145 tons of soybeans were shipped in the week ending January 16, falling short of expectations and weighing on market sentiment.

Palm Oil

Malaysian palm oil futures recorded modest gains, following stronger vegetable oil prices on Dalian markets. In the long term, palm oil prices may be supported by Indonesia’s increased biodiesel blending mandates.




Market Figures (CBoT Soybeans)




Outlook

While the rapeseed market remains stable, delayed harvests in Brazil and ongoing dryness in Argentina may provide short-term support for international oilseed markets. However, uncertainties regarding US trade policies and potential tariffs remain a concern, particularly for Canada.
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