Corn Prices See a Modest Start to the Year

Corn futures in Chicago began 2025 slightly lower after a strong rally in late 2024. Speculators are now taking their most optimistic position on corn in two years, reflecting high expectations for the market.

Friday’s USDA report is set to influence market sentiment. With a focus on U.S. corn and soybean harvest figures, quarterly stocks, winter wheat planting, and global supply-demand trends.

U.S. Corn and Soybean Production Trends

Analysts estimate U.S. corn yields at 182.7 bushels per acre (bpa), slightly below the November figure of 183.1 bpa but still higher than previous records. If confirmed, this would mark the first time in six years that yields have exceeded USDA’s initial trendline projection.

Although analysts expect fewer surprises due to these high projections, unexpected revisions in the USDA report are still possible. Similar reports in the past have occasionally delivered unexpected outcomes, impacting market dynamics.

Soybean production remains uncertain following the largest cut in 31 years during USDA’s November forecast. While U.S. soybean supplies are projected to remain at multi-year highs, U.S. corn ending stocks have been revised downward for seven straight months, underscoring strong demand that continues to support prices.

Updates on Winter Wheat and South American Crops

The USDA’s winter wheat planting survey will provide the first look at the 2025-26 crop outlook, with acreage forecasted at 33.37 million acres, in line with historical trends. Any significant deviations in the planting data could influence market sentiment, as past predictions have often missed the mark.

In South America, Brazil’s soybean production for the 2024-25 season is expected to reach a record 170.28 million metric tons. Which is slightly above the prior estimate of 169 million tons. Meanwhile, Argentina continues to face dry weather conditions, which could reduce both soybean and corn crop estimates if the situation worsens.

Market Impacts to Watch

The USDA report is likely to emphasize strong demand for corn, which could stabilize prices even if production estimates rise. However, a sharp upward revision in U.S. corn yields, similar to what occurred in 2024, could shift the market to a more bearish stance.

For wheat, the winter planting survey could influence sentiment further, especially as global wheat stocks among major exporters are running low.

Closing Thoughts

The USDA’s January report could play a pivotal role in shaping market trends for corn, soybeans, and wheat. While demand remains strong, unexpected revisions in U.S. and South American crop projections may introduce volatility.





Click here to reach our trading platfrom CMBroker