Red Chilli Market Stabilizes with New Arrivals

The red chilli market has maintained steady prices over the past couple of weeks. With new arrivals from key producing regions, the market is expected to remain stable, though minor fluctuations could occur in the coming months.

Red chilli-producing states like Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Maharashtra have started seeing larger arrivals. While the crop from Madhya Pradesh has already exited the market, traders are now focusing on fresh arrivals from other states.

Markets such as Guntur, Warangal, Khammam, and Vyadagi are reporting steady increases in supply:

• Guntur started receiving new chilli crops about 20 days ago. The arrivals have grown from 15,000 to 20,000 bags to around 70,000 to 75,000 bags.
• Similar trends are observed in Warangal and Vyadagi, with expectations of further increases in the weeks ahead.

Sown Area and Carry-Forward Stocks

Initial reports suggest a small decline in the total area sown, estimated at about 5 to 10 percent lower than last year. However, this is not expected to cause major disruptions, thanks to healthy carry-forward stocks:

• Warangal alone has about 800,000 bags of carry-forward stock compared to 500,000 bags last year.

Other major markets are also reporting strong stock availability, ensuring a balanced supply.

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Price Trends in the Coming Months

Over the last two weeks, red chilli prices have shown a slight increase, rising by USD 0,10 to 0,12 per kilogram in some regions. However, as arrivals continue to grow, prices are expected to stabilize or even soften:

• In Warangal, current arrivals of 7,000 to 8,000 bags are projected to increase to 20,000 bags in February and 40,000 to 50,000 bags by March.
• Similar supply growth is expected in Khammam.

Good Crop Condition

The overall crop condition has been satisfactory, although some regions have reported virus-related issues, which is a recurring challenge. While production might be slightly lower than last year, robust carry-forward stocks and increasing arrivals should balance the market. A more accurate production estimate will be available by March as the full crop reaches markets.

Red Chilli Market Ahead

In the near term, red chilli prices are expected to stay stable or slightly decline as new arrivals increase. By March, with peak arrivals, there may be adjustments in prices based on supply and buyer activity. Traders and buyers should remain attentive to market updates and crop reports to plan their strategies effectively.





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