The price of almond kernels has seen a significant drop of USD 1,02 to 1,08 per kg in the past two weeks. However, there's no reason for concern as ample stock is available from earlier imports. Big importers appear to be slowing down deliveries intentionally while holding back goods to stabilize the market.

According to recent market surveys, almond kernel prices had risen by USD 1,80 per kg  over the last six weeks, peaking at USD 10,04 per kg to USD 10,09 per kg. However, with an increase in container arrivals this month, importers are strategically selling their stock to drive prices lower and secure cheaper future deals. This has led to a sharp fall of USD 0,67 per kg  within just two days, bringing current rates to USD 9,04 to 9,09 per kg .

Whole almonds are also trading at USD 5,67 to 5,70 per kg.

California Almond Crop and Global Supply Challenges

The California almond crop, a major source of global supply, has seen consistent production declines over the last two years. A lack of interest among producers and reduced rainfall have significantly affected harvests, with production expected to drop from 3 billion pounds to 2,45 billion pounds. Reports also suggest smaller yields in Australia, with older stock in poor condition.

In India, major markets like Delhi, Mumbai, Kanpur, Amritsar, and Ludhiana have been clearing out older stock. The arrival of new supplies is still a few months away, further tightening short-term availability. From Jammu, known for its thick almond kernels, supplies are reportedly lower this season as well.

Current Market Dynamics and Long-Term Outlook

While prices may dip by another USD 0,27 to 0,40 per kg  in the short term, the market outlook remains positive. Traders anticipate a rebound after this correction, with prices potentially climbing back to USD 10,23 per kg.

Given these dynamics, it’s advisable to hold on to stocks and wait for better market conditions rather than selling at current rates. The long-term demand for almond kernels remains strong, with an expected upward trend in prices as global shortages become more pronounced.

Conclusion: Wait for the Right Opportunity

Considering the production shortfall in California, reduced yields globally, and current stock conditions, almond kernel prices are poised for a rebound. Traders and importers should hold their stock and wait for prices to recover. The next few months could offer a lucrative opportunity as supplies dwindle and demand picks up.





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