Prices Show Upward Trend

For the past two weeks, export prices for GMO soybeans in Ukraine have been climbing due to limited supply from producers. Prices now stand at USD 0,38–0,39 per kg (USD 382–385 per ton) with delivery to Black Sea ports. Similarly, non-GMO soybeans saw a price increase of USD 0,41–0,42 per kg (USD 410–415 per ton) for deliveries to ports or Ukraine’s western border. However, domestic processors held firm, keeping factory delivery prices at USD 0,40 per kg (USD 19,000 per ton).

Exports Decline in January

From January 1 to 22, Ukraine exported 157,300 tons of soybeans, but monthly totals are expected to fall short of previous months. Weaker demand from key buyers in the EU and shifting trade patterns contribute to this slowdown.

Brazil’s Harvest 

Brazil’s soybean harvest is progressing slower than last year. As of January 23, only 3.2% of the 47.4 million hectares had been harvested, significantly lagging behind last year’s 8.6%. Heavy rains in Brazil and an unexpected heat wave in Argentina are adding uncertainty to global supply projections. Despite these setbacks, Brazil is still on track for a record harvest.

Production Forecasts for Brazil and Argentina

Analyst Dr. Michael Cordonnier revised Argentina’s soybean production forecast downward by 2 million tons, bringing it to 49 million tons. This is 3 million tons below the USDA’s estimate but 1 million tons higher than last year’s output. Brazil’s production forecast remains unchanged at 170 million tons—17 million tons more than the previous season.

U.S. Soybean Exports Face Challenges

March soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade dropped 2.1% to USD 0,38 per kg (USD 384 per ton), though they remain 5.2% higher month-on-month. The decline stems from ongoing concerns over trade tensions between the U.S. and China, with tariffs potentially disrupting global supply chains.

China has been shifting its soybean imports away from the U.S., reducing purchases by 5.7% to 22.13 million tons in 2024. Meanwhile, Brazil’s share of China’s imports rose 6.7% to 74.65 million tons, and Argentina’s exports to China nearly doubled from 1.95 million to 4.1 million tons.

European Buyers Await Brazil’s Crop

With Brazil’s new harvest approaching, European demand for Ukrainian soybeans is cooling. This season, the EU increased soybean imports by 15% to 7.9 million tons, favoring Brazil over other suppliers. Brazil’s share of EU imports rose from 27% to 31%, while Ukraine’s share edged up from 8% to 11.1%. Meanwhile, U.S. soybean exports to Europe dropped from 55% to 51%.

Conclusion 

Ukraine’s soybean prices are rising, but future trends depend on Brazil’s harvest and global trade policies. If Brazil delivers its record crop, world prices may fall further. Ukrainian exporters should consider locking in current prices while demand remains steady. Meanwhile, buyers should monitor Brazil’s harvest progress, as any further delays or crop losses could lead to price volatility.





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