Sunflower Market Under Pressure: Rising Prices and Supply Shortages
Sunflower Market Under Pressure: Rising Prices and Supply Shortages
The global sunflower market is characterized by dynamic developments influenced by production fluctuations and geopolitical events. Below is a summary of the key insights and trends in the market.Global Market Size and Growth
The global sunflower market was estimated at approximately USD 40.59 billion in 2024. By 2029, it is expected to grow to USD 47.08 billion, representing an average annual growth rate of 3.01%. This growth is primarily driven by increasing demand for sunflower oil and related products.Production and Harvest Forecasts
- France: Sunflower production in 2024 is projected at around 1.9 million tonnes, representing a 10.1% decline compared to the previous year. The main reasons are a 3% reduction in cultivated areas and a 7.4% drop in yields.
- Ukraine and Russia: Both countries are major producers and exporters of sunflower oil. The ongoing conflict in the region has led to production disruptions and export restrictions, significantly impacting global prices.
- Russia:
- According to Rosstat, the gross harvest of sunflower seeds in 2024 after revision was 16,574.4 thousand tonnes, 4% less than in 2023.
- Over five years, yields increased by 7.8%, and over ten years, by 95.4%.
- The decline in production was due to a slight reduction in cultivation area (-0.8%) and a decrease in yield from 18.4 to 17.6 centners per hectare.
Market for Hulled Sunflower Seeds
In addition to the sunflower oil market, there is a separate market for hulled sunflower seeds, which are primarily used in the bakery and snack industry. Due to poor harvests, the quality of kernels suitable for hulling has decreased by about 30%. Large and well-developed kernels are required for successful hulling, but since this year’s harvest was smaller, there are fewer suitable kernels available.Bulgaria has been particularly affected, now relying more on sunflower seed imports from Ukraine. While prices for hulled sunflower seeds declined slightly in January, the situation remains tight.
- Prices for Sunflower Seeds (FCA):
- Ukraine: approximately EUR 1.17/kg
- Bulgaria: approximately EUR 1.25/kg
Organic Sunflower Seeds Hit Hardest: The organic sector has been particularly impacted by the current situation. Organic sunflower seed production is significantly smaller compared to the conventional market, and production is typically limited to actual market demand. At the same time, the market for organic sunflower seeds is shrinking, exacerbating the situation.
- Prices for Organic Sunflower Seeds (bakery, truckload quantities):
- Depending on origin and quantity: EUR 1.74/kg - 2.00/kg
SAFEX Sunflower Prices (as of January 28, 2025)
The May 2025 contract shows the largest price increase at +1.39%, while the March 2025 contract recorded the highest traded volume at 247 tonnes.Demand and Consumption
The rising demand for healthy edible oils has boosted global consumption of sunflower oil. Particularly in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, sunflower oil is preferred due to its health benefits and neutral taste.Market Trends
- Health Benefits: Sunflower oil is rich in oleic and linoleic acids, which can positively impact cholesterol levels.
- Regional Developments: The Asia-Pacific region is experiencing rapid growth, driven by increasing health awareness and rising incomes.
- Applications: In addition to edible oil production, sunflower seeds are used in flour manufacturing and the confectionery industry.
Challenges
- Geopolitical Risks: The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has significant effects on the market.
- Climatic Conditions: Weather-related yield declines and changing cultivation conditions pose additional challenges.
Conclusion
The sunflower market remains a dynamic sector with significant potential. The increasing demand for healthy foods and the versatile applications of sunflower products offer growth opportunities. At the same time, geopolitical uncertainties and climatic challenges require flexible market strategies and continuous monitoring of global developments.Click here to reach our trading platfrom CMBroker
