Cumin Prices Surge as Export Demand Grows

India, the world’s largest producer and supplier of cumin, continues to lead the global spice trade. For the 2023-24 crop year, India's cumin production increased to 8,6 million tonnes, up from 5,77 million tonnes the previous year. This rise was due to improved crop conditions and higher sowing activity, particularly in Gujarat and Rajasthan. However, total acreage declined slightly, making it harder to scale up production.

Exports Push Prices Higher

Cumin exports have seen significant growth, with shipments reaching 1,35 million tonnes between April and October 2024. In October alone, exports more than doubled compared to the previous year.

India remains the most competitive cumin supplier globally, with prices at USD 3,66 per kg, about USD 0,24 to USD 0,30 per kg lower than China’s cumin rates. Rising demand from China, along with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has further fueled exports, particularly from Gujarat.

Tight Domestic Supply Keeps Prices Firm

Cumin demand in India remains high, driven by its widespread use in cooking and increased buying during the festive season. Meanwhile, inventory levels are tightening.

Currently, an estimated 2,0 to 2,5 million bags of cumin are stored in warehouses, but only 0,3 to 0,4 million bags are expected to be traded before the season ends. This leaves a carryover stock of around 1,6 million bags.

Earlier in January, daily arrivals at the Unjha market—India’s key cumin trading hub—jumped from 0,12 to 0,14 million bags to 0,17 to 0,22 million bags in just two days. This temporary surge briefly lowered prices, but they quickly stabilized.

Delayed Sowing and Weather Challenges Affect 2024-25 Production

New cumin arrivals in the market, expected by February 2025, will influence supply trends. However, weather conditions and sowing delays have raised concerns.

Acreage in Gujarat and Rajasthan declined due to late sowing, but better-than-expected rainfall has helped offset some of the impact. Despite this, supply remains uncertain, and the stock-to-use ratio suggests availability will stay tight.

Cumin Price Forecast

With limited stock and strong export demand, prices are expected to remain firm. Current prices stand at USD 2,67 per kg and are projected to rise to USD 2,93 per kg in the next 30 to 40 days.

Support levels are seen near USD 2,55 per kg, as tight supplies and strong global demand continue to drive the market.

Conclusion: Strong Outlook for Indian Cumin

India’s cumin market is experiencing steady growth, supported by strong exports and limited stock availability. With supply pressures expected to persist, effective management will be crucial in maintaining market stability and meeting rising global demand.





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