Wheat Markets Diverge: Euronext Holds Steady, CBoT Under Pressure

On Friday, the global wheat market showed mixed trends. While Euronext wheat futures remained stable, CBoT wheat saw notable losses.

---

Euronext Wheat Holds Firm

At Euronext (MATIF), wheat prices remained unchanged. The March 2025 contract closed at 234.50 EUR/t, with later contracts also showing no movement:

• May 2025: 238.25 EUR/t
• September 2025: 230.75 EUR/t
• December 2025: 235.00 EUR/t

Traders maintained a wait-and-see approach, with concerns over export competition but confidence in European wheat's price competitiveness.

A key technical factor is that the 50-day moving average (SMA50) remains above the market, supporting a continued upward trend.

---

CBoT Wheat Declines – Strong US Dollar Weighs on Prices

Unlike Euronext, CBoT wheat futures faced pressure. The March contract fell 4.00 ct to 562.50 ct/bu (197.85 EUR/t), with losses extending across other contracts:

• May 2025: -4.00 ct to 575.00 ct/bu
• July 2025: -4.25 ct to 586.25 ct/bu
• December 2025: -5.25 ct to 617.50 ct/bu

Reasons for the Decline:

• Strong US Dollar: A rising dollar made US wheat less competitive in global markets.
• Technical Selling: Investors took profits after recent gains.
• Weak Export Demand: Russia and Argentina continue to offer wheat at competitive prices, pressuring US exports.

Some Gains in Later Contracts:

• July 2026: +3.00 ct to 643.50 ct/bu
• September 2026: +2.75 ct to 651.00 ct/bu

---

Global Factors Impacting the Market

Russia’s Grain Exports Decline Sharply

• Russia expects to export 57 million tons of wheat in 2024/2025, significantly lower than the 72 million tons last season.
• Export quotas for the second half of the season have been reduced by 70% to secure domestic supply.
• Officially, 82% of winter wheat crops are in good condition, though Russia’s weather agency reports that 38% are in poor shape.

Ukraine: Rising Barley Prices

• Feed barley prices increased by $2–6/t, reaching $198–211/t (190–203 EUR/t) CPT-port, driven by high demand and limited supply.

Canada Expects Slightly Higher Wheat Production

• Total wheat production in 2025 is forecast at 35.03 million tons (+0.2%).
• Durum wheat production is expected to drop 12% to 5.15 million tons due to lower acreage.
• Weather conditions will be crucial for actual yields.

---

Conclusion & Outlook

• Euronext remains stable, while CBoT sees declines.
• Russia & Argentina’s cheaper wheat is weighing on global prices.
• Canada’s production remains steady, though durum wheat output is expected to shrink.
• Demand from North Africa and the Middle East remains a key driver.
• Technically, the uptrend is intact, but fundamental pressures could slow further gains.

Click here to reach our trading platform CMBroker