Rainfall Patterns in Argentina and Brazil Continue to Impact Crop Conditions

Uneven rainfall across South America and Europe is affecting crop production, with excessive moisture in some regions and drought in others. Argentina has received steady rainfall that is expected to continue into next week, improving crop conditions. Meanwhile, Brazil is facing challenges as heavy rains slow the soybean and corn harvest, pushing prices higher.

Brazil’s Harvest Faces Delays Due to Heavy Rains

Despite a slight drop in rainfall intensity in Brazil, another round of storms is expected next week. This ongoing moisture is making harvesting difficult, lowering yield potential and affecting soybean quality due to premature seed germination. In the southern part of the country, below-normal rainfall is also limiting corn and soybean yields.

According to Safras & Mercado, as of January 24, Brazil’s first corn crop has been harvested on 10,3% of the planned 3,512 million hectares (8,4% last year and 8,7% over the past five years). Soybean harvesting lags significantly at 4%, compared to 9% last year, which may delay the sowing of Brazil’s second corn crop.

Argentina Sees Heat After Light Rains

While some parts of Argentina received light rainfall this week, rising temperatures above 30°C by the end of the week have worsened crop conditions, particularly in central and eastern regions. More rain is forecast for next week, but it won’t be enough to replenish moisture levels, especially as soybean and corn crops enter their critical growth phases.

U.S. Weather Shifts to Milder Conditions

After a harsh cold snap, the Midwest and Plains of the U.S. are experiencing warmer temperatures and light precipitation, which is improving moisture reserves for winter crops. Next week, temperatures are expected to rise to +5 to +10°C. The Central and Southern Plains will receive heavier rains, while the Northern Plains and the Canadian prairies will see frost and light precipitation.

Europe and Ukraine Face Mixed Weather Challenges

Storms continue to bring excessive rainfall to Southwestern Europe, while Southeastern Europe remains dry, causing concern for winter wheat crops. In Ukraine, moisture deficits are increasing, but positive temperatures have helped prevent soil from drying out completely. However, a forecasted drop in temperatures over the next 7-10 days with little precipitation could further reduce moisture reserves, negatively affecting crop development.

Russian Crops Benefit from Favorable Conditions

In Russia, recent rainfall has saturated the soil well, and mild temperatures in the southwest have improved crop conditions. Currently, about 81% of winter crops are in satisfactory or good condition, with weather conditions continuing to support growth.

Conclusion: What Farmers and Traders Should Watch

With continued rainfall delays in Brazil, soybean and corn prices are likely to remain firm. The slow pace of Brazil’s harvest could lead to logistical bottlenecks, supporting price increases in global markets. Argentina’s weather remains a wildcard, as higher temperatures could further stress crops despite forecasted rainfall. In the U.S., improving moisture levels should support winter crops, but traders should keep an eye on long-term forecasts. Given current conditions, buyers should consider locking in prices before potential further supply constraints push prices higher.





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