Low Arrivals Keep Auction Prices on the Rise

The big cardamom market in India isn’t giving any room for price drops. With supply staying much lower than usual, auction prices continue to hold firm, making it a tricky time for buyers hoping for a correction. Domestic wholesale markets are showing the same trend, with stock running thin and demand staying steady. If sales pick up further, big cardamom prices could get even stronger.

Despite expectations of better arrivals by this time of year, auctions have barely seen an improvement. Farmers and traders are holding onto their stocks, waiting for prices to go even higher. This has made fresh supplies in the market even scarcer. Big cardamom scissor cut recently climbed to USD 22,44 to 22,56 per kg, reflecting the ongoing tight supply.

Unfavorable Weather Adds to the Trouble

Extreme weather conditions earlier in the season caused significant trouble for big cardamom crops, especially in Assam and Meghalaya. Heavy rains and flooding hit many farms, making an already delicate crop even more vulnerable. The first and second crops of the season turned out much weaker than expected.

Estimates suggest that 60-70% of the big cardamom crop suffered damage due to erratic temperatures and unpredictable rainfall. Farmers in many regions are reporting much lower yields than usual. The problem doesn’t stop here—there are still reports of unseasonal conditions that could affect what’s left of the crop.

Shortage Extends Beyond India

It’s not just India facing a supply crunch. Nepal’s big cardamom production also took a hit, leading to significantly lower arrivals in the market. Right now, Nepal’s shipments range between 500 to 1,000 bags, but high import costs are discouraging more trade. Bhutan and Sikkim have also reported crop damage, keeping supply tight across the entire region.

Export Demand Puts Extra Pressure on Supply

Exporters aren’t slowing down, adding more pressure to an already stressed supply chain. Between April and October 2024, India exported 659,68 tonnes of big cardamom, raking in USD 12,17 million. Compared to last year’s 458,15 tonnes exports valued at USD 4,65 million, this is a massive jump. With global buyers pushing for more Indian cardamom, it’s no surprise that domestic stock is running out faster than usual.

Conclusion: No Major Drop

With supply still tight and demand staying steady, big cardamom prices are unlikely to see a major drop anytime soon. Traders are keeping an eye on fresh arrivals, but any significant relief in supply might take longer than expected. Those waiting for a price correction may have to hold on for a while—unless, of course, some unexpected market movement shakes things up.





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