Rapeseed Prices in Ukraine Drop as Export Programs Wrap Up
Ukraine exported almost 2.8 million tons of rapeseed, a 4% increase from the previous season. With stocks declining, traders who purchased rapeseed in Black Sea ports completed their export programs in January, causing demand prices to drop from UAH 25,500-26,000 per ton to UAH 23,500-24,000 per ton.
March canola futures on the Winnipeg Exchange dipped 0.3% on Friday but rebounded 0.3% on Monday to CAD 640 per ton (USD 0,44 per kg, up 1.4% for the week). Despite market expectations of a more significant price drop, the tariff situation had minimal impact.
May rapeseed futures on the Paris Stock Exchange declined slightly on Friday but gained €3.5 per ton on Monday, reaching €519 per ton (USD 0,53 per kg, up 0.4% for the week).
According to the German Association for the Promotion of Grain and Oilseed Crops (UFOP), EU countries increased rapeseed imports by 5% in the 2024/25 MY (as of January 19), reaching 3.4 million tons. Of this:
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Market Pressures and Global Influences
Rapeseed prices face additional pressure from falling prices in Paris, fluctuations in the euro-to-dollar exchange rate, and the U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods—though the tariff enforcement has been delayed by a month.March canola futures on the Winnipeg Exchange dipped 0.3% on Friday but rebounded 0.3% on Monday to CAD 640 per ton (USD 0,44 per kg, up 1.4% for the week). Despite market expectations of a more significant price drop, the tariff situation had minimal impact.
May rapeseed futures on the Paris Stock Exchange declined slightly on Friday but gained €3.5 per ton on Monday, reaching €519 per ton (USD 0,53 per kg, up 0.4% for the week).
Canada's Growing Influence in the Market
Canada is ramping up its cheap canola exports to the EU. The U.S. tariff delay could encourage further shipments.According to the German Association for the Promotion of Grain and Oilseed Crops (UFOP), EU countries increased rapeseed imports by 5% in the 2024/25 MY (as of January 19), reaching 3.4 million tons. Of this:
- 63% (2.2 million tons) came from Ukraine (up from 2.1 million tons in 2023/24 MY).
- 26% (875,000 tons) came from Australia (a 19% increase).
- 144,000 tons came from Canada, three times more than last season.
Production Forecasts Could Weigh on Prices
Rapeseed prices could face further downward pressure as production forecasts improve. Favorable weather and expanded sowing areas prompted Strategie Grains to raise the 2025/26 MY EU rapeseed production estimate from 18.74 million tons to 19 million tons. This figure is 13% higher than the 2024/25 MY projection.What This Means for Traders and Buyers
With falling prices and increased global supply, buyers might find good opportunities to secure contracts now. However, traders should watch for further market shifts, especially with the potential impact of U.S. tariffs and rising EU production.Click here to reach our trading platfrom CMBroker
