Wheat Futures Maintain Gains Amid Global Market Uncertainty

The wheat futures on Euronext closed almost unchanged on Tuesday. The March contract recorded a daily gain of 0.50 EUR, reaching a two-month high of 235 EUR/t, while later maturities saw slight declines.

In contrast, U.S. wheat markets posted significant gains. The Soft Red Winter wheat contract on the CBoT for March delivery rose by 10.25 ct to 577 ct/bu, marking a three-month high. Similar gains were recorded for Hard Red Winter and Spring Wheat contracts.

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Key Market Drivers

Trade Tensions Eased, Impacting Markets

• The wheat market was relatively quiet on Tuesday, with no major new developments.
• Relief over the temporary de-escalation of a trade war between the US, Mexico, and Canada had a positive impact on wheat trading sentiment.
• A weaker U.S. dollar supported U.S. wheat prices, while a stronger euro limited gains in Euronext futures.

EU Weekly Export Data Remains in Line with Expectations

• The latest EU export figures were in line with market expectations, providing no major surprises.
• France reported wheat exports of 1.35 million tons, even less than Germany’s 1.42 million tons.
• The European Commission noted that France’s export data is incomplete, making it difficult to accurately assess the market situation.
• Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports are declining, with prices rising.
• However, FOB wheat prices in Russia, Ukraine, and Argentina remain lower than those in Western Europe.

Market Outlook: Positive Demand Signals and Weather Concerns

• Rising corn prices could increase demand for feed wheat.
• In northern Germany, the corn price for February deliveries is nearing the 250 EUR/t mark, reaching a six-month high.
• Russia's uncertain weather conditions remain a bullish factor.
  • SovEcon raised its forecast for Russian wheat exports for the 2025/2026 season from 36.4 million to 38.3 million tons.
  • Despite this increase, exports would still be 4.5 million tons lower than in the current season.
  • Drought conditions in Russia have left soil moisture levels critically low, raising concerns about potential spring drought damage.

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Current Wheat Prices

Euronext (MATIF) Wheat

• March 2025: 231.00 EUR/t
• May 2025: 236.75 EUR/t
• September 2025: 232.75 EUR/t
• December 2025: 237.75 EUR/t

CBoT Wheat

• March 2025: 572.00 ct/bu (-0.25 ct / -0.04%)
• May 2025: 584.25 ct/bu (-0.25 ct / -0.04%)
• July 2025: 596.50 ct/bu (-0.25 ct / -0.04%)
• December 2025: 629.50 ct/bu (+0.50 ct / +0.08%)

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Conclusion: Market Poised for Further Volatility

• The weaker U.S. dollar and rising corn prices are supporting wheat demand.
• Strong wheat exports remain uncertain, with EU shipments still sluggish.
• Russian and Ukrainian production challenges could provide price support in the coming months.
• Volatility is expected to remain high as geopolitical and weather risks persist.

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