Turkey: Drought Reduces Grain Production – Government Responds with Increased Exports

Ankara, February 6, 2025 – Turkey's grain production is set to decline significantly in the 2024/25 marketing year due to ongoing drought conditions. According to a recent report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), wheat and barley yields are particularly affected, while corn and rice production remains relatively stable. Despite lower harvests, Turkey still holds large carryover stocks from the previous year, which the government is now actively working to reduce.

Extreme Weather Lowers Yields

The report highlights that wheat production is expected to drop to 19.0 million metric tons (MMT), a decline of 2.0 MMT from the previous year. Barley production is also forecasted to decrease by 1.0 MMT to 7.0 MMT. The primary reason for these declines is persistent drought, with rainfall between October and December 2024 28% below the previous year’s levels, according to Turkey’s Meteorological Service.

In response, the Turkish government has launched a new crop incentive program encouraging farmers to grow less water-intensive crops in regions with scarce water supplies. However, it remains too early to gauge the program’s full impact.

Turkey Increases Grain Exports

To reduce its large inventories, the Turkish government has increased exports of wheat and barley. While wheat exports are forecasted at 7.0 MMT, barley exports are expected to rise significantly to 450,000 metric tons, more than three times the previous year's total.

Meanwhile, wheat imports dropped by more than 40% in the first six months of the current marketing year due to the temporary suspension of the Inward Processing Regime (IPR), which forces millers to purchase most of their wheat domestically. However, Russian wheat imports remain attractive, as they are approximately $70 per metric ton cheaper than Turkish wheat.

Corn and Rice Remain Stable, But Water Shortages Pose Risks

Corn production has been revised slightly higher to 7.1 MMT, though it remains lower than last year’s level. Rice production increased slightly to 580,000 metric tons, but continued drought in Turkey’s Thrace region could pose a challenge for future yields.

According to the USDA, Turkey's rice imports surged by 40% year-over-year between September and November, with China (44,000 MT) and the U.S. (28,000 MT) as the leading suppliers. This marks the first significant shipment of U.S. rice to Turkey since 2020.

Conclusion

Drought continues to impact Turkey’s grain production. The government is responding by boosting exports and promoting water-efficient crops. At the same time, Turkey remains heavily reliant on wheat and corn imports from Russia and Ukraine. The upcoming spring rainfall will be crucial in determining the next harvest season.

Source:USDA Grain and Feed Update – Ankara, Turkey, Report TU2020-0051, published February 4, 2025.