California Almond Market: December Report Shows Stable Shipments Despite Challenges

The Almond Board of California has released its December 2024 Position Report. The latest figures indicate overall stable shipments, while the market is influenced by rising prices, cautious buying and selling behavior, and growing uncertainties regarding future trade tariffs.

---

Total Supply and Crop Development

As of December, total crop receipts stand at 1.169 million metric tons (2.576 billion lbs.), reflecting a 15.61% increase compared to last year. However, it is becoming clear that the originally estimated 1.27 million metric ton (2.8 billion lbs.) harvest will likely not be met. The final crop size is now expected to be closer to 1.22 million metric tons (2.7 billion lbs.).

The total available almond supply, including carryover inventory, currently stands at 1.372 million metric tons (3.026 billion lbs.), marking a 1.45% increase from last year.

---

Almond Shipments and Export Trends

Total shipments for the season have reached 519.3 thousand metric tons (1.144 billion lbs.), keeping pace with last year’s levels.

While overall export volumes remain stable, regional shipment trends show significant variations. Some markets have drastically reduced imports, while others have ramped up purchases.

Key Export Market Performance (December 2024 vs. December 2023)

• India: -11.2%
• Germany: +8.3%
• Netherlands: +23.4%
• Spain: -16.3%
• Turkey: +62.4%
• UAE: -30%

A particularly notable trend is the strong increase in shipments to Turkey (+62.4%) and the Netherlands (+23.4%), while India, one of the largest buyers of California almonds, has seen a significant decline of -11.2%.

---

Inventory and Commitments

The uncommitted almond inventory has increased by 9.93% to 599.3 thousand metric tons (1.321 billion lbs.).

Commitments (Sold but Not Yet Shipped)

• Total Commitments: 254.4 thousand metric tons (561 million lbs.) (-11.96% YoY)
• Domestic: 99.8 thousand metric tons (220 million lbs.) (-20.73%)
• Export: 154.8 thousand metric tons (341 million lbs.) (-5.19%)

This indicates that many buyers remain hesitant to commit to large purchases, while sellers are also reluctant to make long-term deals, preferring to wait for better price opportunities.

---

Market Sentiment and Price Trends

Over the past three months, almond prices have been rising. Many buyers feel that prices have risen too quickly, while growers argue that low prices over the past few years were unsustainable, leading to reduced production and tighter supply.

Key Market Realities

• For several years, supply exceeded demand, driving prices lower.
• Now, supply and demand have realigned, pushing prices to a more sustainable level for growers.
• Buyers are cautious, waiting to see if post-bloom prices stabilize or decrease.

A key uncertainty is the potential for import tariffs, especially from China. Many buyers are adopting a wait-and-see strategy regarding trade policies under the new U.S. administration.

---

Outlook for the Coming Weeks

1. Almond Bloom Is Critical for the 2025 Crop

• The next 2-3 weeks will be crucial for tree pollination and future yields.
• Two major winter storms in California have helped improve water availability.
• However, weather conditions during bloom will be closely monitored, as they can impact the next harvest.

2. Expected Market Movements

• If bloom weather is unfavorable, prices may continue to rise.
• If conditions are stable, supply could improve, limiting further price increases.

---

Conclusion: Stable Shipments, but Uncertainties Remain

The latest report highlights stable shipments but a cautious market:

• Export markets show mixed demand – while Turkey and the Netherlands have increased purchases, India has pulled back.
• Both buyers and sellers remain cautious, particularly ahead of the almond bloom and potential trade tariff changes.
• The next few weeks will be decisive, as bloom conditions will determine the future supply outlook.

Key Industry Dates to Watch

📅 Next Position Report: February 12, 2025📈 Almond Bloom Monitoring: February–March 2025

With the almond bloom approaching and trade uncertainties still in play, the coming weeks could be pivotal for the global almond market.

Click here to reach our trading platform CMBroker