Carryover Stock of Cumin

The standing cumin crop remains stable, with no reports of major losses so far. However, delayed planting and rising temperatures have created uncertainty about final yield estimates. In Rajasthan, sorghum cultivation is 5% lower than last year, while Gujarat has seen a 20% decline in planted area.

Cumin cultivation has covered 1.125 million hectares in Gujarat and Rajasthan this season, compared to 1.25 million hectares last year, marking a decline in sown area. The new cumin crop will begin arriving in Gujarat within 15 days, followed by Rajasthan at a later stage.

Stock Estimates and Market Trends

As the new season approaches, the carryover stock of cumin is projected to be 18-20 million bags by March. Farmers currently hold larger cumin reserves, while traders possess comparatively lower stocks. Estimates suggest that out of the total stored cumin, traders hold 7 million bags, whereas farmers have 13 million bags.

Weather conditions will play a key role in determining cumin prices in the coming days. If the climate remains favorable, cumin prices could decline by USD 0,06 per kg. Market stability is expected once fresh cumin arrivals begin, keeping price fluctuations in check.

Cumin Futures and Export Growth

The current cumin price stands at USD 2,52 per kg, with projections indicating that weather patterns between March 20-25 could influence market trends. The export sector has shown strong performance, with total cumin exports expected to reach 250,000 tonnes by the end of February 2025. This marks a sharp increase from 160,000 tonnes last year, largely driven by demand during Ramadan trade.

Analysts believe that higher export volumes have helped balance the market, preventing excess stock accumulation despite lower cultivation. As cumin exports continue to meet global demand, market stability will depend on upcoming crop arrivals and weather conditions.

Conclusion: Stable Market Expected with New Crop Arrivals

While cumin cultivation has declined this year, carryover stock levels remain sufficient, and exports continue to show strong momentum. Farmers and traders are closely watching the weather, as it will determine price movements in the coming weeks. With fresh cumin set to enter the market soon, steady demand and improved export figures should help maintain market stability as the season progresses.





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