Wheat Markets Under Pressure: CBoT Faces Profit-Taking, While Euronext Holds Firm

Wheat futures at Euronext managed to hold their gains on Friday, while CBoT saw a pullback after a strong rally in recent days. The March contract at Euronext gained 3 EUR to 234 EUR/t, while the September future rose by 2.25 EUR to 235 EUR/t—the highest level for the new crop in nearly five months. However, at CBoT, March wheat dropped 2.50 ct to 580.25 ct/bu (-0.43%), as traders took profits after covering short positions.

CBoT: Technical Selling After Rally

After significant gains in recent days, the Chicago market experienced a correction on Friday. Investors took profits, as there was a technical resistance around 585-590 ct/bu, triggering selling activity. Despite the losses, the mid-term technical outlook remains intact, as concerns over potential yield losses in Russia and Ukraine continue to provide support.

Current Prices and Conversion (CBoT to EUR/kg):

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.92 EUR, 1 bushel wheat = 27.216 kg)

➡ Despite the correction, wheat prices remain at multi-week highs.➡ If frost damage occurs in Russia or the U.S. wheat export conditions improve, further price increases could follow.

Euronext Holds Steady – Russia Remains in Focus

At Euronext, the previous day’s gains in the U.S. market supported a continuation of the uptrend. Lower export volumes from Russia and Ukraine, as well as higher Black Sea wheat prices, helped keep European prices stable.

Currently, Russian wheat with 12.5% protein for February/March delivery is priced at $240-243/t (FOB), while Argentine wheat is trading at $232-236/t.

Despite this, European wheat continues to face strong international competition, as Black Sea wheat remains cheaper than EU wheat.

U.S. Weekly Export Sales Within Expectations

The USDA reported export bookings of 438,867 t for the week ending January 30, within the market estimates of 200,000 to 550,000 t.

➡ Volume was 4% lower than the previous week, but 41% above the four-week average.➡ Sales for 2025/26 totalled 47,296 t, at the upper end of expectations.

Weather Remains the Key Factor

Forecasts for a cold spell in Russia have already triggered a strong reaction in financial markets.If conditions deteriorate, wheat crops in Russia and Ukraine could suffer significant damage.

➡ SovEcon now expects only 38.3 million tons of Russian wheat exports for the 2025/26 season—4.5 million tons less than in the current season.

Conclusion: Wheat Markets Remain Volatile

The coming days will be decisive, as markets assess whether the recent wheat price surge is sustainable.

• Euronext remains stable, supported by lower export volumes from Russia and rising Black Sea wheat prices.
• CBoT is more vulnerable to technical corrections, but the mid-term outlook remains bullish, with weather risks and export potential still key drivers.

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