Raisin Supply Tightens as Farmers Prioritize Fresh Grapes

For the second consecutive year, India’s raisin production is expected to decline, putting pressure on the market. Maharashtra in India dominates raisin cultivations. It has seen farmers favor fresh grape sales over drying them for raisins due to higher prices and better profits.

The Sangli market, a major trading hub, has started receiving 2-3 cartloads of fresh raisins daily, but the supply remains limited. New raisins are currently priced at USD 2,52–2,76 per kg, while older stock is selling at USD 2,40–2,64 per kg. As the season progresses, more arrivals are expected, which could push prices down by USD 0,18–0,24 per kg by late February or March. However, traders believe the decline won’t last long due to low carryover stock and weaker production estimates.

Raisin Production in 2025: Will Supply Match Demand?

Maharashtra’s raisin output for 2024-25 is estimated at 160,000–180,000 tonnes, lower than last year’s 180,000–200,000 tonnes and significantly below 2023’s 230,000–240,000 tonnes.

Adding to supply concerns, the current stock in Maharashtra’s key markets is only 6,000–7,000 carts, a stark contrast to the 30,000–35,000 carts recorded last year.

Meanwhile, Turkey, a major competitor in the global raisin trade, is also seeing lower production levels. Their 2025 output is expected to be 200,000 tonnes, falling short of their usual 250,000–300,000 tonnes. With both India and Turkey experiencing supply constraints, global raisin prices could see higher volatility in the coming months.

Raisin Export Trends In Key Market

India’s raisin exports play a crucial role in the global market. The key buyers are including Morocco, Russia, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka. In 2023-24, exports totaled 37,000 tonnes, and despite lower supply, international demand remains steady.

As new arrivals increase in February and March, the market will closely watch how prices react. If supply pressure builds, prices could dip temporarily, but the overall trend suggests a firm market due to limited production and stock availability.

Traders are advising buyers to secure their stock early, as the market could firm up again once the initial wave of new arrivals slows down.

Conclusion: Will 2025 Be a Bright Year for Raisin Traders?

With production continuing to shrink and export demand holding strong, India’s raisin market is at a critical juncture. With new arrivals increase, prices may see a dip. But tight supply conditions could drive another surge later in the year.

For traders and bulk buyers, the next few weeks will be crucial. Will prices stabilize, or will demand outstrip supply once again? The answer lies in how farmers and exporters navigate the changing market landscape in 2025.