India’s Import Policy Creates Uncertainty for Brazil’s Urad Industry

Brazilian urad farmers are in limbo, waiting for India’s final decision on import duties before planting the next crop. If the Indian government does not extend duty-free imports beyond March 31, 2025, many farmers in Brazil may reduce urad cultivation and switch to maize, soybeans, or other profitable crops.

Brazil has been a key supplier of urad to India, exporting 50,000 tonnes in 2024. If India continues duty-free imports, exports could double to 100,000 tonnes. However, if import duties return, shipments may drop to just 30,000–40,000 tonnes, significantly impacting Brazil’s urad industry.

Shifting Market Trends and Global Supply Challenges

India relies heavily on Myanmar for urad imports, sourcing nearly 90% of its supply from there. However, excessive rainfall and erratic weather have impacted Myanmar’s urad production, raising concerns about potential shortages. If India does not secure alternative sources, domestic prices may become volatile.

At the same time, Brazilian farmers are under increasing pressure to grow maize, as China and Mexico continue to increase maize purchases. Given rising global corn prices, maize is becoming a more attractive option than urad for many farmers.

Another factor influencing Brazil’s urad production is falling prices. Urad prices have dropped by over 30% from their peak levels, mainly due to high imports of yellow peas, chickpeas, and pigeon peas. With demand shifting, many growers are reluctant to continue planting urad unless India guarantees steady purchasing policies.

How India’s Decision Could Impact Global Urad Supply

Industry experts warn that if India delays its import policy decision, Brazilian farmers may cut back on urad planting, leading to supply shortages later in 2025. If Brazil reduces its urad exports, Thailand may step in as an alternative supplier, though Thai urad is generally of lower quality.

With India being the world’s largest consumer of urad, its trade policies will heavily influence global supply and pricing. If the government reinstates import duties, domestic prices could rise, but traders argue that India still needs steady imports to avoid shortages.

Conclusion: Brazil’s Urad Production Hangs in the Balance

As the March 31 deadline approaches, Brazilian farmers remain undecided about whether to plant urad or shift to other crops. If India extends duty-free imports, Brazil will likely increase production to meet rising demand. However, if tariffs return, many farmers will switch to maize or soybeans, leading to a tightened urad supply worldwide.

The coming weeks are critical, as India’s decision will not only impact Brazilian farmers but also reshape global urad trade for 2025. Until then, farmers are holding back on planting, waiting for a clear signal from India.