EU Sugar Prices Slightly Increase – Market Remains Subdued

Sugar prices in the EU have slightly increased by €0.01/kg, now ranging between €0.51/kg and €0.55/kg FCA. Despite this rise, demand remains weak as many major buyers have already secured long-term contracts. At the same time, reports of a drastic decline in sugar production in India are causing uncertainty in global markets. Additionally, a new analysis shows that sugar consumption in Germany and the EU has decreased by 10%, amounting to 260,000 tons in Germany and 1.65 million tons across the EU. Will this trigger a price rally, or will the market remain stable? A comprehensive market overview.

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Latest Developments in ICE Sugar No. 5 (Converted to EUR) – February 10, 2025

With the current exchange rate of 0.92 USD/EUR, the adjusted closing prices for Sugar No. 5 are:

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EU Market: Slight Price Increase Despite Weak Demand

• Sugar prices in the EU have increased by €0.01/kg, now ranging between €0.51/kg and €0.55/kg FCA.
• Despite this slight increase, demand remains weak, as many major buyers have already secured long-term contracts.
• It is estimated that 30% of sugar demand is still uncovered, which could lead to a late buying wave.

Sugar Consumption in Germany and the EU Drops by 10%

• In Germany, the estimated decline in sugar demand amounts to 260,000 tons per year.
• Across the EU, the estimated reduction is even higher at 1.65 million tons per year.
• This decline could lead to a supply surplus, increasing price pressure in the long run.

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India: Production Decline Could Impact Global Prices

• India’s sugar production is expected to drop by 17% to 26.52 million tons, according to the All-India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA).
• Sugar stocks could fall below historical averages, leaving only 4.50 million tons as ending stock for September 2025.
• The festival season (October-November) is expected to increase India’s sugar demand to 4.80-5.00 million tons, posing a potential risk of shortages and rising export prices.

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International Market Trends and Influencing Factors

• Recent reports indicate that sugar consumption in Germany decreased by 10% in the 2023/24 economic year.
• Weak consumer demand in the EU could further pressure prices, while global shortages might drive them higher.

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Conclusion: Market Remains Stable, But Risks Persist

📈 Why could prices increase?

• India’s production decline could impact the global market.
• Speculators might push futures higher if supply concerns persist.

📉 Why could prices decrease?

• EU demand remains weak, as major buyers have already secured contracts.
• Global sugar stocks remain high, preventing immediate supply concerns.
• The 1.65 million-ton decline in EU sugar consumption could further suppress prices.

📊 What’s next for the market?While EU sugar prices have risen slightly, market uncertainty remains. India’s production issues may have long-term effects, but the decline in EU sugar consumption could limit price increases. Market participants should closely monitor these opposing trends.

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