Euronext Prices Continue to Rise – CBoT Wheat Slightly Down
Euronext Prices Continue to Rise – CBoT Wheat Slightly Down
Market Overview
The wheat futures market continued its upward trend on Monday. On Euronext, the March contract gained 2 EUR to close at 236.75 EUR/t, marking an eight-session winning streak out of the past ten trading days. The September contract also reached a four-month high for the second consecutive session.Meanwhile, on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), wheat prices moved in the opposite direction, with the March contract losing 3.25 cents to 579.50 cents/bushel (191.62 EUR/t or 21.6 EUR per 100 kg). The decline was driven by improved expectations regarding U.S. winter wheat conditions and uncertainty over U.S. trade policies.
Wheat Price Development
- Euronext (MATIF) Wheat (EUR/t)
- March 2025: +2.00 EUR → 236.75 EUR/t
- May 2025: +2.00 EUR → 241.75 EUR/t
- September 2025: +2.00 EUR → 236.25 EUR/t
- CBOT Soft Red Winter Wheat (USD/bushel)
- March 2025: -3.25 cents → 579.50 cents/bu (191.62 EUR/t or 21.6 EUR per 100 kg)
- May 2025: -3.25 cents → 592.50 cents/bu (195.85 EUR/t or 22.0 EUR per 100 kg)
- July 2025: -3.25 cents → 604.50 cents/bu (199.96 EUR/t or 22.5 EUR per 100 kg)
Weather Conditions in Russian Wheat Regions
A key driver of the rising European wheat market is the deteriorating weather outlook in Russia, one of the world's largest wheat exporters.- Southern Russia (Krasnodar, Rostov, Stavropol)
- These areas are crucial wheat-producing regions.
- Temperatures are expected to drop significantly over the next two weeks, with forecasts indicating -10°C to -15°C at night.
- The lack of a protective snow cover raises concerns over frost damage, particularly for crops that were already stressed due to previous drought conditions.
- Central Russia & Volga Region (Voronezh, Saratov, Samara)
- Extreme cold is forecasted, with temperatures dropping below -20°C.
- The soil moisture levels remain below average, affecting wheat resilience.
- Siberian Wheat Belt
- The region is currently experiencing stable conditions with moderate snow coverage, which is helping to protect winter crops.
- However, prolonged cold spells could delay spring planting.
Impact on the Market
The adverse weather conditions in Russia could further reduce the wheat supply from the country. The consulting firm IKAR has already lowered its 2025 Russian wheat production forecast:- Base scenario: 82 million tons (previously 84 million tons)
- Pessimistic scenario: 77 million tons (previously 79 million tons)
- Optimistic scenario: 87 million tons (previously 89 million tons)
U.S. Trade Policy and Export Outlook
The U.S. wheat market remains under pressure as concerns grow over potential retaliatory tariffs from key trading partners. The Biden administration's push for higher tariffs on Chinese imports has fueled speculation that China might restrict purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, including wheat.However, U.S. wheat exports remain strong. According to the USDA Export Inspection Report, for the week ending February 6:
- Total exports: 536,217 tons (up 32% from the same week last year)
- Main buyers: Philippines (186,641 tons), Dominican Republic (67,329 tons), Mexico (64,668 tons)
- Year-to-date shipments: 14.6 million tons (up 24% year-on-year)
Outlook and Key Considerations
- European wheat prices are likely to remain firm due to supply risks in Russia and rising demand.
- Russian wheat export restrictions could further support the EU and U.S. wheat markets.
- The CBOT wheat market remains under pressure due to improved U.S. winter wheat conditions and trade policy uncertainties.
- The next two weeks' weather conditions in Russia will be critical in determining potential crop losses.
This structured report provides a clear market update, including price movements, weather risks, and trade policies affecting wheat markets globally. Let me know if you need further refinements!
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