Logistics Drive Corn Prices Stability in Ukraine 

Corn prices in Ukraine continued to rise last week, supported by lower transshipment costs and growing demand. Export prices increased by USD 0,21–0,22 per kg, reaching USD 0,213–0,215 per kg at Black Sea ports. However, domestic prices in hryvnia remained unchanged at USD 0,10–0,102 per kg, reflecting the US dollar’s depreciation against the hryvnia.

Large agricultural holdings have offered more corn in response to steady export demand. Additionally, the government postponed a planned rail transport cost hike until March. This delay encouraged farmers to ship more grain now, benefiting from lower logistics expenses before rates increase.

Strong Export Momentum and Global Market Factors

Ukraine’s corn exports remained strong in January, reaching 2,52 million tonnes. Since the season began, total shipments have hit 12,1 million tonnes, surpassing half of the USDA’s 23-million-tonne projection for 2024/25.

Over the next few months, demand for Ukrainian corn may grow further. Lower harvest expectations in South America could shift buyers toward Ukrainian suppliers. Additionally, possible trade tariffs between the EU and the US could alter global trade flows, creating new export opportunities for Ukraine.

South American Weather Adds to Market Uncertainty

Weather conditions in Argentina and Brazil continue to impact the global corn market. Recent rainfall in Argentina has eased some concerns, reducing speculative pressure on prices. However, heavy rain in Brazil has slowed soybean harvesting and delayed second-crop corn planting. These delays are increasing demand for May and July corn futures contracts as traders anticipate supply constraints.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, traders have adjusted their strategies. Last week, they reduced short positions on corn futures, while increasing long positions. As a result, the net long position reached its highest level since May 2022.

Corn Futures React to Market Developments

On Friday, March corn futures in Chicago fell 1,6% to USD 0,191 per kg. Despite this decline, prices rose 1% for the week and 3,6% for the month. Similarly, May futures dropped by 1,4% to USD 0,197 per kg.

Market participants are now waiting for the USDA’s February report, which is expected to lower Argentina’s corn production forecast by 1,5 million tonnes to 49,5 million tonnes due to the January drought. However, Brazil’s harvest outlook remains stable at 127 million tonnes, aligning with January projections and exceeding the 122 million tonnes harvested in 2023/24.

Conclusion: Market Watches Weather and Export Trends

Ukraine’s corn market remains well-supported by strong export demand and logistics adjustments, though currency fluctuations limit domestic price gains.

Global traders are closely monitoring weather patterns in South America, which will play a key role in determining price trends. If Brazil and Argentina continue to experience weather disruptions, demand for Ukrainian corn could strengthen further, providing additional price support in the months ahead.





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