EU Sugar Prices Continue to Rise as Global Market Sees Stronger Demand

Sugar prices in the EU continue their upward trend, now ranging between €0.52/kg and €0.56/kg FCA. This comes as the ICE Sugar No. 5 futures surge, with the March 2025 contract rising by 2.52% to $532.80/t. Strong global demand and supply concerns drive the price rally, particularly in India, where sugar production is expected to drop by 17% this season. With market uncertainty growing, analysts are watching whether EU demand will remain weak or if buyers will return to the market.

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Latest Developments in ICE Sugar No. 5 (Converted to EUR) – February 11, 2025

With the current exchange rate of 0.92 USD/EUR, the adjusted closing prices for Sugar No. 5 are:

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EU Sugar Market: Prices Climb as Market Awaits New Developments

• Sugar prices in the EU have increased again, now ranging between €0.52/kg and €0.56/kg FCA.
• The price increase is linked to stronger demand for futures contracts and concerns over lower supply from key producing countries.
• Demand in the EU remains relatively weak, with major buyers having secured long-term contracts.
• 30% of the required sugar volumes remain uncovered, leading to speculation on further price moves.

Global Sugar Production Concerns Add to Market Pressure

• India’s sugar production is projected to fall by 17% to 26.52 million tons this season, the biggest drop in recent years.
• The country’s closing stocks may fall to just 4.5 million tons, which is below two months’ worth of domestic demand.
• Seasonal demand for the Indian festival season (October-November) will push up domestic consumption, further limiting export potential.

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What’s Next for Sugar Prices?

📈 Why prices could rise further:

• Production issues in India, Thailand, and Brazil could tighten global supply.
• Speculative demand is increasing, as traders expect further price surges.
• The remaining 30% of sugar volumes in the EU market may lead to last-minute buying as stock levels decrease.

📉 Why prices could stabilize or fall:

• EU sugar demand is still weak, which could slow price growth.
• Global sugar inventories are high, and some countries could ramp up exports.
• Consumption in Europe is down by 10%, with 1.65 million tons less sugar needed annually, reducing market pressure.

📊 Final Outlook:With rising futures and growing uncertainty over global supply, sugar prices remain volatile. While the EU market is still sluggish, production concerns in major exporting nations could drive further price increases in the coming weeks. Market participants should monitor global supply trends and demand shifts closely.

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