Rapeseed Market Declines After Tuesday's Gains
Rapeseed Market Declines After Tuesday's Gains
After recent price increases, the rapeseed market at Euronext saw losses on Wednesday. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding global demand and trade tariffs weighed on prices. While soybean futures at CBoT fell to a four-week low, rising vegetable oil prices helped limit losses in rapeseed.
Soybean prices struggled due to concerns about uncertain global demand and U.S. trade policy. Fears of new tariffs on key agricultural products and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. biofuel policy contributed to a bearish sentiment.
Despite the weaker oilseed market, rising vegetable oil prices provided support for rapeseed. In Malaysia, palm oil futures closed higher for the fifth consecutive session on Wednesday. However, profit-taking in Kuala Lumpur on Thursday led to minor price declines.
The weekly USDA export sales report, scheduled for release today, is expected to show:
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After recent price increases, the rapeseed market at Euronext saw losses on Wednesday. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding global demand and trade tariffs weighed on prices. While soybean futures at CBoT fell to a four-week low, rising vegetable oil prices helped limit losses in rapeseed.
Market Development
The Euronext rapeseed May contract fell by 1.50 EUR to 521.50 EUR/t on Wednesday, giving up part of the previous day’s gains. In the U.S., soybean futures also came under pressure. The CBoT March soybean contract dropped 15.75 cents to 1,027.75 ct/bu (363 EUR/t), marking the lowest level in four weeks.Soybean prices struggled due to concerns about uncertain global demand and U.S. trade policy. Fears of new tariffs on key agricultural products and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. biofuel policy contributed to a bearish sentiment.
Despite the weaker oilseed market, rising vegetable oil prices provided support for rapeseed. In Malaysia, palm oil futures closed higher for the fifth consecutive session on Wednesday. However, profit-taking in Kuala Lumpur on Thursday led to minor price declines.
Canola Market in Canada
The Canadian Canola market at ICE also saw a correction after a five-day winning streak. The May contract dropped 5.40 CAD to 669.70 CAD/t, as traders engaged in profit-taking following the recent rally to a three-month high.USDA Export Sales & South American Production Forecasts
On Wednesday, the USDA reported a private export sale of 120,000 tons of soybeans for the 2024/25 marketing year to an unknown destination.The weekly USDA export sales report, scheduled for release today, is expected to show:
- 300,000–800,000 tons of old-crop soybeans
- 0–50,000 tons of new-crop soybeans (2025/26)
- 200,000–625,000 tons of soybean meal
- 0–35,000 tons of soybean oil
- The Brazilian soybean association Abiove forecasts 171.7 million tons, slightly higher than the USDA's estimate of 169 million tons.
- The Brazilian agriculture agency CONAB will release its latest crop estimate today.
- In Argentina, the Rosario Grain Exchange significantly cut its soybean production forecast, reducing its estimate from 53.0–53.5 million tons to just 47.5 million tons—below the USDA’s projection of 49 million tons.
- Recent rainfall in Argentina has somewhat improved soil moisture conditions, easing drought concerns.
Outlook & 3-Day Price Forecast
Traders remain cautious as uncertainty over U.S. trade tariffs and biofuel policies continues to weigh on market sentiment.Price Forecast for the Next Three Days:
- Euronext Rapeseed (May 25): Expected range 520–526 EUR/t
- CBoT Soybeans (March 25): Expected range 1,025–1,035 ct/bu
- ICE Canola (May 25): Expected range 665–675 CAD/t
- Today’s USDA export sales report may provide short-term direction.
- The new Brazilian crop forecast from CONAB could significantly impact prices.
- Palm oil price movements in Malaysia will continue to influence rapeseed and canola prices.
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