Sunflower Lower Yields Due to Adverse Weather

The European Commission has revised its sunflower production forecast for the EU in 2024, lowering it by 7,000 tonnes to 8.0 million tonnes. This represents an 18% decline compared to the previous season, largely due to unfavorable weather conditions. Despite an increase in sowing areas, poor yields have led to a sharp drop in total production.

Romania Loses Top Producer Spot

Romania, which previously led EU sunflower production, is now expected to harvest just 1.2 million tonnes, a staggering 38% drop from 2023. This is the lowest production in 15 years, causing the country to slip from first to fourth place in EU rankings.

Hungary will take the lead with a projected 1.7 million tonnes, though this still marks a 13% decline from the previous season. France follows closely, with an estimated production of 1.7 million tonnes, also down 18% due to excessive rainfall.

Germany’s Sunflower Harvest Forecast Adjusted

In Germany, the national farmers' association revised its sunflower production estimate downward by 7,000 tonnes from its December forecast. The final estimate now stands at 127,000 tonnes, which is 25% lower than in 2023 but still 20% above the five-year average. Farmers initially expanded sunflower sowing in 2022 due to rising prices, but by 2023, they cut back on planting, leading to the current decline.

Market Impacts

With EU production falling, Ukrainian farmers had expected higher sunflower oil prices. However, European consumers are increasingly favoring rapeseed oil, keeping sunflower oil prices between USD 0,52-0,60 per kg, while refined sunflower oil remains at USD 1,10-1,20 per kg. The shift in consumer preferences has prevented a significant price surge despite supply constraints.

As the market adjusts to lower production and shifting demand, traders and producers will be closely monitoring developments in global edible oil markets to assess future price movements.





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