Market Report: California Almonds – Strong Demand Amidst Uncertainty – February 2025
Market Report: California Almonds – Strong Demand Amidst Uncertainty – February 2025
Market Overview
The California Almond Board has released the January position report, showing total shipments of 228.6 million pounds, a 3.1% decrease compared to 235.9 million pounds last year. Despite the decline, this number exceeded industry expectations and marks the third-largest shipment month for January in history.Shipment Trends
January 2025 Shipments (in million pounds):
- Domestic: 61.65 (-2.0%)
- Export: 166.99 (-3.5%)
Year-to-Date Shipments:
- Total: 1.373 billion pounds (-0.53% YoY)
- Comparison: 1.380 billion pounds last year
- Significance: The industry has managed strong shipments despite lower carry-in stocks, reflecting robust demand.
Crop Receipts & Production Estimates
- Current Receipts: 2.664 billion pounds (vs. 2.391 billion pounds last year).
- Final Crop Estimate: Expected to be around 2.7 billion pounds, slightly below the 2.8 billion-pound Objective Crop Estimate from CASS.
- Industry Outlook: The CASS estimate was fairly accurate, and most expect the final number to settle close to 2.7 billion pounds.
Market Performance & Pricing Trends
January was an active sales month, with 238 million pounds sold, surpassing last year's figures.- The industry is now 59.9% sold (including crop and carry-in).
- Key buying regions:
- USA
- Europe
- India
- Asia
- North Africa
- Middle East
Price Trends
- Kernel sales performed exceptionally well.
- India was highly active in the first half of January for in-shell purchases.
- Prices dipped by 5–10 cents per pound in late January but started rebounding in early February due to stronger demand.
- February shipments are at full capacity for all packers, with March and April shipments expected to maintain momentum.
Weather & Bloom Conditions
Weather:- Unstable conditions in January: warmer and drier than usual, leading to poor bud set.
- February weather shift: Cold, windy, and heavy rains in Northern California.
- Northern California: 50-75% bloom already.
- Central California: Bloom started slower but is expected to accelerate next week.
- Weather impact: The cooler start to February has delayed bloom in Central and Southern regions. Favourable weather in the coming week should create good bloom overlap for pollination.
- Crop Outlook: Too early to predict. Estimates range from 2.5–2.9 billion pounds, but concerns remain over last year’s extreme heat (43 days above 100°F in Modesto vs. the usual 18 days).
- Economic Factors:
- Due to poor farming economics over the past three years, growers have minimized investments, which could affect the 2025 crop potential.
Bees & Pollination Concerns
- The Almond Board has raised concerns about bee colony collapses, sparking global attention.
- The impact on pollination is unknown, but this could become a critical issue for future crops.
Rainfall & Snowpack
- Recent atmospheric rainstorms in Northern California have brought excellent precipitation and boosted the Sierra Nevada snowpack, benefiting the long-term water supply.
Currency Impact
- US Dollar Strengthening:
- Indian Rupee: 87 to $1
- Euro: 1.03 USD
- Effect: A stronger USD makes US agricultural exports more expensive in foreign markets, potentially impacting demand.
Market Outlook
- February shipments are projected to be extremely strong.
- Packers remain aggressive in selling March and April shipments.
- In-shell almonds are expected to move higher due to firm demand.
- Packer shipping schedules are fully booked for February.