Warmer Temperatures Impacting Mustard Crop Production

As mustard crops near harvesting, concerns over lower production are heating up the market. Experts estimate that this year's mustard production may decline by 1.3 million tonnes due to higher-than-normal temperatures during the growing season. According to the National Mustard Research Centre, January's average temperature stood at 13.4°C, whereas mustard crops thrive best between 8-10°C. Weather variations in February could further impact the yield.

Significant Drop in Sowing Area

Mustard sowing in key producing regions has declined by 25% in several districts, including Ashok Nagar, Neemuch, Ujjain, and Mandsaur in Madhya Pradesh, as well as Baran, Kota, Bundi, and Chittorgarh in Rajasthan. Similarly, sowing in parts of Uttar Pradesh and Haryana has dropped due to extended rainfall until October, delaying planting.

The Mustard Oil Producers of India (MOPA) has confirmed this decline, reporting that mustard sowing has dropped by 0.3 million hectares this year. Last year, mustard covered 9.9 million hectares, but this year, the figure has fallen to 9.6 million hectares. In Rajasthan alone, the targeted sowing area was 4.05 million hectares, yet only 2.9 million hectares were covered.

Weather Conditions Affecting Crop Quality

According to Skymet, continuous western disturbances kept January cloudy, leading to elevated temperatures. From January 2-15, the average temperature stood at 12.5°C, whereas it should have been 8°C for optimal crop development. The Mustard Research Centre reported maximum temperatures reaching 19.3°C and minimum temperatures at 7.6°C, 3°C higher than last year during the day and 1.2°C higher at night.

Due to higher temperatures, mustard seed oil content is expected to drop to 38.5%, compared to 40.5% last year.

Rising Mustard Oil Prices Expected

The total mustard production in 2023 stood at 11.3 million tonnes, but estimates suggest it may only reach 10.0 million tonnes this year. Additionally, Mavath rainfall is 71% below average, which may further affect yields.

With supply constraints looming, mustard oil prices could cross USD 1,80 per kg by the end of March. Currently, fresh mustard oil is priced at USD 1,58 per kg, but further price hikes seem inevitable.

Conclusion: Supply Shortage May Keep Prices Firm

With reduced sowing, higher temperatures, and lower oil content, mustard production faces multiple challenges this season. While demand remains steady, supply-side concerns may keep prices elevated in the coming months. Farmers, traders, and consumers should closely track developments in weather conditions and harvest progress to anticipate market trends.

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